SUPER BOWL XLVI Sunday Service Plays 2/5/12

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ROBERT FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take #101 New York Giants (+3) over New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 54.0 New York Giants vs. New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 5)
Hey, I know it's not a big, sexy, all-or-nothing Super Bowl pick. But that's not really my style. As always, I just want to get in, get a profit, and move on. And I think that this is a card that is going to pay out.
I think that the Giants have been the best team in football over the last five weeks and I don't think it's even close. In that way they are just like the Packers last year (remember: Green Bay needed a Week 17 win over Chicago to make the playoffs before running the table) and right now being the "hot team" goes a long way. The Giants are healthy, they are confident, they are playing great on both sides of the ball, and they have a the most well-rounded team in this game. Essentially, the Giants have won five straight playoff games going back to the Jets game in Week 16. They have been in must-win situations every week and have been operating at peak levels. I think that will only continue on Sunday.
The Giants already beat the Patriots once this year and that game was in New England! But beyond that, they won that game without Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks, two of their best offensive players. Also, New York wasn't playing at nearly the level that they are right now when they beat the Pats. This New York team may be better than the one that beat New England in 2007 while there is no way these Patriots are as good as that team was. That mental edge - not just of beating the Patriots in Foxboro but of beating them in the Super Bowl in 2007 - is a big one for the G-Men.
Like that 2007 Patriots team, I think that this year's New England group is very overrated. They have only beaten one - ONE - team that finished the year over .500, and that was in the AFC Championship Game. And they only won that game thanks to a brutal missed chip-shot field goal. The Patriots were not the better team in that game. New England has fallen asleep at the wheel for long stretches against bad teams like the Redskins, Bills and Dolphins, and this defense is - in my opinion - one of the worst Super Bowl defenses of all time. They can't stop even the most basic of plays and I don't see how they are going to hold up for 60 minutes in this game.
The Patriots roster just doesn't have a ton of talent. And in a lot of ways this game reminds me of the Colts-Saints Super Bowl a few years ago when it was obvious to me that New Orleans was the far superior team. That win wasn't an "upset". I think if those teams played 10 times the Saints would have won at least 8 of those games. I think it is the same thing here. The Patriots have basically become the Colts of the early 2000's. They have an outstanding offense. But their defense is terrible and when they come up against more physical teams in the postseason they just can't get it done.
I like the Giants to win this game outright. The game will get near the total (again, that Patriots defense is pathetic) but I don't think that it will go 'over'. I am looking at something like 28-23 or 31-20 in a game that the G-Men control.

Prop Bets:
1.5-Unit Play. Take Ahmad Bradshaw 'Over' 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I love this prop bet and I think that it is going to be easy money. Bradshaw is a workhorse and he rushed for nearly 1,300 yards last year. People forget about that because he was hurt for most of this season. But the Giants have pounded the ball on the ground in the postseason and he has rushed for 74, 63 and 63 yards in the playoffs so far. Bradshaw did that against three defenses that are much better than New Englands. Also, Bradshaw actually ran for 45 yards on 9 carriers in the Giants last Super Bowl win over New England. He was a rookie then. And if Coughlin trusted him to tote the rock in that spot he is not going to have any trouble going to him here. Bradshaw averaged 15.8 carries in his first seven games before he got hurt and he has averaged 15.4 carries in the last five games for New York. If he gets 14-16 carries in this game I don't see any way that he doesn't come through for at least 70 yards and I think that he is headed for a day where he nets over 100 total yards. Let's ride the underrated Bradshaw here.

0.5-Unit Play. Take Shortest TD of the game 'Over' 1.5 yards (+140)

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 5.5 Third down conversions by Patriots (-110)

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

3-Unit Play. Take #101 New York Giants (+3) over New England (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)

Ladies and gents, welcome to Superbowl Sunday. In this game you take the team that is hot, and that team is the NY Giants. We have won five straight with the Gmen dating all the way back to the Dallas game. Following that win, we hit with the Giants versus the Falcons, the Packers, and the 49ers. Yes, New England has won nine games in a row which should mean that they are the hottest team coming into this game, but the only good team they defeated was the Ravens last weekend. The Giants are going to get pressure on Brady, which will cause him to rush his decisions and cause the Patriots offense to sputter (by sputter, I mean hit for less than 24 points). Many people are comparing this game to 2007-08, but take a look back at when these two teams faced each other earlier this season. The Giants weren't playing nearly as good, and they were without Nicks and Bradshaw. The Giants still won that game in New England. The Giants defense seemed to be a shell of what it is now as well. Eli Manning said at the beginning of they year that he is an elite quarterback, and he has definitely proven that. Not only is he elite, but if/when he wins this game, many will say he is better than his brother. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last nine playoff games while the Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last eight. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two teams. New York is 4-0 ATS in the last four games in which they out rush their opponent and that should come easy on Sunday night. The Patriots meanwhile are 1-4 ATS in the last five games in which they have been out rushed. We have taken the Giants this far so why not finish off this great run with another GMen SU win while getting points. It doesn't get any better than that.

Prop Bet:

1-Unit Play. Take 'Yes' (+140) to both teams making a FG of 33 or more yards.

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ALLEN EASTMAN ACE - ACE

7-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 54.0 New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (6:20 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5)

Everyone is debating over which team is going to win. Who cares? I think that the best bet in this Super Bowl is on the 'under'. This is one of the highest totals in Super Bowl history and I don't think that these are two of the best offenses in Super Bowl history. The last Super Bowl when these two met in 2007 the total was set at 52.0 and there was just 31 points scored! When these two teams met earlier in the season there was just 44 points scored and a lot of them came in the last two minutes of the game. The team that wins this game is the one that plays the best defense. Both of these teams know they have to stop the other team and all week that is all they have heard about that. The defenses are going to be extremely motivated. They have also had two weeks to study their opponents again. That is all a big benefit to the defense. The 'under' is 8-2 in New York's last 10 playoff games and they haven't given up over 20 points yet this postseason. And they faced a very good Green Bay offense. The Patriots haven't given up over 24 points since Dec. 11. Their defense gave up just 10 and 20 so far in the playoffs. They are playing better than people are giving them credit for. These are two excellent teams with defensive coaches. They are going to play a tough rivalry game and this one is going to be lower scoring than most of the experts are predicting. I am not going to worry about who wins but I am going to load up on the 'under' in this game and take it to the bank!
Here are two prop bets that I have made. I think this game is going 'under'. So I think that there will be a lot of field goals on both sides. I didn't ?rate? these plays with Units but they are optional plays to anyone that likes to bet on that sort of thing:

Total FG by Lawrence Tynes: 'Over' 1.5 (+140)

Total FG by Stephen Gostkowski: 'Over' 1.5 (+100)

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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

3 Unit Play. #102 Take New England -3 over New York Giants (6:30p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5 NBC)

2 Unit Play. #101 Take Under 54 ½ NY Giants vs. New England (6:30p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5 NBC)
(Write-Up for both)

So the betting public is all over the Giants and the public have been betting the Giants since they beat the 49ers. I'm playing the revenge factor and giving Bill Belichick 2-weeks to prepare for this game could also be the big factor. Should be a hard fought defensive game at first with the Giants trying to establish the run but in the 2nd half is when Tom Brady takes control of this game. New England wins this game late and I see the final score in this Super Bowl game to be the Patriots 27, and NY Giants 23. Again, with the Giants establish the run in this 1st half the under is our big play in this game and 2nd half will have more points. The New York Giants are 2-8 O/U in their last 10 playoff games.

6 Unit Play. Take Over 61 ½ -110 Total Rushing Yards by Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) (6:30p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5 NBC)

In order to leave Tom Brady off the field you will need to run the ball and let the clock run. We should see a heavy dosage of Ahmad Bradshaw early and often and if the Patriots defense can't control the run game Bradshaw has a big game. New England couldn't tackle Baltimore's Rice and Bradshaw is bigger and will be able to dominate the 1st half. Wouldn't shock me to see this prop bet be close to cashing by halftime.

2 Unit Play. Take Tom Brady -1/2 -140 over Eli Manning Most Rushing Yards (6:30p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5 NBC)

Thought this prop bet was a bit off and the wise guys beat me to the better money-line but we believe this bet still has great value. Brady is a bit better at being mobile in the pocket and you figure the Giants will be rushing him all game long.

2 Unit Play. Take LeBron James Points -1/2 +110 over NYG/NE 1st Half Points (6:30p.m., Sunday, Feb. 5 NBC)
Why not! In my eyes LeBron James is the NBA MVP so far and Wednesday night LeBron threw up 40 points against the Milwaukee Bucks. Should be a low scoring 1st half in the Super Bowl and I see King James scoring in the low 30's against the Raptors.

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1 Unit Wagers

Will either team score 3 straight times? No: (+155)
"In a game that will be close throughout, I do not see either team getting three scores in a row before the other team scores. Remember extra points or 2-point conversions do not count."

Shortest Touchdown of the game: OVER 1.5 yards (+115)
"This one is a prop I have had good success with over the years and the only way you lose this one is with a one-yard TD run or pass. If we see a pass interference call in the end-zone, which is unlikely, our ticket is toast."

Largest lead of the game by either team: UNDER 13.5 (+125)
"My game plan has this being a tight game throughout and I can't see this game becoming a rout like past Super Bowls. In a game that should come down to the 4th quarter I don't see either team leading by more than 13 points at any point in the game."

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Northcoast

Double Marquee - Total Sacks OVER 4.5 +120

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Bryan Power

2/5/2012 NFL New York Giants at New England Patriots 6:30 PM ET over 55

10* NFL 1st Half TOTAL POWER!
over

10* NFL 1st Half POWER Play
New England (HT)

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BEN BURNS-

= TOP PLAY =-
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NFL Feb 05 '12
6:30p NY Giants vs New England Patriots

10* Take: New England Patriots -3-110 in 5d
Reason: I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND.

[WINNERS_ONLY]

DR BOB

BEST BETS
NFL Strong Opinions
NY Giants 23 at NEW ENGLAND 26 UNDER 55.0
05-Feb-2012 3:30PM Pacific

NEW YORK OFFENSE vERSUS NEW ENGLAND DEFENSE
New York’s offense has been good all season and the Giants enter this game averaging 386 yards per game at 6.1 yards per play (not including kneel downs and spiked balls to stop the clock, or the Hail Mary completion against the Packers) against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. Quarterback Eli Manning has had his best season, averaging 7.5 yards per pass play while limiting his interceptions, but the normally effective Giants’ rushing attack was horrible most of the season and averaged just 3.9 ypr. The rushing attack has certainly been better recently and that improvement can be traced back to the season ending injury to left tackle William Beatty, who was injured in week 11 and has missed the last 9 games. David Diehl moved over the left tackle and Kevin Boothe stepped into the lineup starting week 12 (6 games at left guard and 3 at center) and has done a good job in run blocking. The Giants averaged only 3.4 ypr through week 11, but they’ve averaged 4.4 ypr since week 12 (against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team). I rate the Giants at 0.7 yards per play better than average heading into this game. Most people would assume that Eli Manning would post big numbers against a Patriots’ defense that allowed 282 passing yards per game at 7.0 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team), but the secondary playing in this game for the Patriots performed much better than that and was actually quite good. The Patriots started the season allowing a horrendous 8.5 yards per pass play the first 4 weeks of the season, but the secondary improved drastically when James Ihedigbo was inserted into the starting lineup at strong safety in week 5 and Patrick Chung was much more effective at free safety after starting the season at strong safety. The other change was inserting Kyle Arrington at the starting cornerback slot opposite Devin McCourty. The foursome of Ihedigbo, Chung, Arrington and McCourty began starting together in week 5 and that group allowed just 6.3 yards per pass play in the next 4 games to the Jets, Cowboys, Steelers, and Giants – who would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average pass defense. The Patriots went from epically bad defensively to better than average in those 4 games (5.4 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit), but Patrick Chung had to sit out the next 7 games due to an injured foot and McCourty also missed two games. The Patriots surrendered 6.9 yppp during that stretch without Chung (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp). Chung returned in week 17 and the Patriots have allowed just 5.8 yppp and 5.1 yppl in 3 games with their starting secondary back together. In 7 games in which their current starting has played together the Patriots have allowed just 6.1 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense - and the Patriots would still be 0.1 yppp even after taking out the bad stats of Broncos’ quarterback Tim Tebow, who is not really representative of an NFL starting quarterback. The run defense is also better now than it was over the course of the season (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr), as the better secondary allows play calling that can concentrate more on stopping the run. The Patriots allowed just 3.7 ypr in both playoffs games to two very good running teams (Denver and Baltimore) and they’ve allowed just 4.0 ypr in 7 games with their starting secondary all playing (to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average defense). I actually give some of the credit for that difference in run defense to having their linebacking corps back healthy after Brandon Spikes missed weeks 10 through 16, which were also the weeks that Patrick Chung was out (New England gave up 5.0 ypr in those 7 games). Whether it’s having Chung back or Spikes back that has made the difference in the run defense is uncertain but it’s pretty clear that the Patriots run defense is better now than it was over the course of the season. Overall, the Patriots’ defense has been 0.3 yards per play better than average in 7 games with their starting defensive secondary and Spikes all playing – so they are much better than their horrible season stats suggest (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). After adjusting for the Giants’ improved rushing attack with their current offensive line and for the Patriots’ improved defense with their current personnel I get a projection of 414 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Giants in this game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE VERSUS NEW YORK DEFENSE
The Patriots’ offense has averaged 32.3 points on 428 yards at 6.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) with a slightly worse than average rushing attack (4.2 ypr against teams that would allow 4.4 ypr) and a very good pass attack that has averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp). The pass attack was a little different this season, aside from Wes Welker catching 122 balls, as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for 169 receptions for 2237 yards and 24 touchdowns in the regular season. Gronkowski was particularly impressive with his 10.7 yards per pass thrown to him average, which is outrageous for a tight end (Welker averaged 9.1 ypa and Hernandez averaged 8.1 ypa). Gronkowski hasn’t been able to practice due to a high ankle sprain he suffered last week but he is expected to play. The question is how effective he will be, as Gronkowski averaged 7.3 yards after the catch per reception – a number that would probably go down given his injury. If I assume that Gronkowski loses a good portion of those yards after catch due to his ankle injury (let’s say he averages 11.5 yards per catch like Hernandez does rather than his 14.7 ypc) then the pass attack would suffer a 0.4 yards per pass play drop, which would equate to about 1.3 points. If Gronkowski didn’t play at all then I would expect Tom Brady to average 0.5 yards per pass play less than expected, which is worth 1.7 points. It’s possible that Gronkowski won’t be affected and will play at his normal high level but I’ve decided to take off 0.2 yards per pass play due to his injury. Like the Patriots, the Giants’ defense is also better now than their season stats suggest, as they’ve only had their defensive line together for 9 games and they played much better in those games. Justin Tuck missed weeks 4 through 6 and week 14 while Osi Umenyiora missed weeks 1 through 3 and 13 through 16. In 9 games with both Tuck and Umenyiora joining Jason Pierre-Paul and tackles Linval Joseph and Chris Canty the Giants have been able to put pressure on the opposing passer with just their defensive line, which allows them to put an extra man or two in pass coverage. That has certainly helped, as the Giants have allowed just 6.1 yards per pass play in those 9 games despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp against an average defense. The run defense hasn’t been as good since the Giants have played a lot with 3 or 4 defensive ends on the line with one or zero tackles, but overall the Giants’ defense is been 0.45 yppl better than average defensively with their current personnel, which is considerably better than their season rating of 0.13 yppp better than average. The Giants’ defense is also particularly troubling for the style of offense that the Patriots like to play. With the ability to rush the passer effectively with their 4 down linemen the Giants can play more man-to-man coverage with safety help over the top and Tom Brady tends to have more trouble throwing against man coverage than he does against a zone defense, which he routinely picks apart since his receivers (Wes Welker in particular) are very good at finding holes in the zone. The Patriots have given teams problems this season with their two tight ends, who are often split out wide to create mismatches in open space for big plays down the field, but the Patriots were forced to bring their tight ends in tighter to help in pass protection when they faced the Giants in week 9, which kept them from getting down the field for big plays. In that game the Patriots’ tight ends caught 12 balls, which is about normal, but they averaged only 11.3 yards per catch rather than the 13.2 ypc they averaged for the season. New England averaged just 6.5 yards per pass play and 5.8 yppl in that 20-24 home loss to the Giants, which were below expectations based on statistical projections. The Giants’ pass rushers also match up well against a non-running quarterback like Brady, as it allows them to use both inside and outside pass rush moves against opposing linemen since they aren’t as worried about containing Brady in the pocket. Playing man to man coverage can make it easier for quarterbacks to take off and run for big yardage, as Aaron Rodgers did a few weeks ago (he ran for 66 yards on 7 runs while escaping the pass rush in the Divisional round of the playoffs), but Brady rarely runs and isn’t likely to run as effectively if he does run when the opportunity arises. If the Patriots’ tight ends are forced to help out in pass protection then that is certainly to the benefit of the Giants since the tight ends are a huge part of the passing game for New England.
After adjusting a bit for Gronkowski’s injury and for the improvement in the Giants’ defense with their defensive linemen all healthy, I project 401 total yards at 5.7 yppl for New England in this game.

SIDE PREDICTION
Overall the Giants are expected to out-gain the Patriots and have an edge of 6.1 yppl to 5.7 yppl but New England has a 1.1 points edge in special teams and should have an edge in penalties (the Pats are +2.1 in penalty margin per game while the Giants are +0.5). My math model would favor New England by just 0.4 points (with a total of 54.6 points) based purely on the projected statistics and special teams, but the Patriots have a history of out-playing their statistics (especially on defense) while the Giants tend to under-perform their statistical projections (mostly on offense). In fact, this season the Patriots’ statistics would project a scoring margin of +8.1 points but the Pats are +11.6 in average scoring margin. The Giants, meanwhile, would be projected to out-score their opponents by 4.4 points per game based on their statistics, but they have a scoring margin of just +1.9 points. Some of that difference is simply due to variance, but New England has out-scored their statistical projections by 1.3 points per game with Tom Brady at quarterback over many years while the Giants have under-performed their statistical projections by 1.2 points per game with Tom Coughlin as coach and Eli Manning at quarterback. If I apply those numbers to that statistical math projection, which is certainly reasonable, then I get New England by 2.9 points in this game. I also took a look at the compensated scoring model and I got similar results. New England’s offense has averaged 32.3 points against teams that combine to allow 22.7 points per game, which is +9.6 points. The Giants’ defense in 9 games with all their defensive linemen healthy allowed 20.3 points against mostly high scoring teams that would combine to average 26.8 points per game, so the Giants’ current defense has been 6.5 points better than average. New York’s offense has averaged 25.0 points against teams that combine to allow 21.4 points, so the Giants’ offense has been 3.6 points better than average. The Patriots’ defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game in 7 games with their starting secondary and LB Spikes playing, to teams that combine to average 22.6 points – so the Patriots’ current defense has been 3.0 points better than average. If you add it all up then you have the Patriots at 12.6 points better than average (+9.6 on offense and +3.0 on defense) and the Giants at +10.1 points (+3.6 on offense and +6.5 points on defense). That’s a difference of 2.5 points in favor of the Patriots, but the Giants are a bit better offensively with their improved rushing attack and the Pats are probably going to be a bit worse with the Gronkowski at less than 100%, which would lead to an adjusted prediction of Patriots by 1 ½ points using the compensated scoring model. My other math model, which takes scoring efficiency into account, favors the Patriots 3 ½ points in this game after making all the adjustments. It appears the fair line on this game is anywhere between 1 ½ and 3 ½ points, so a line of 2 ½ points seems to be fair and doesn’t supply us with any value. As you can see, picking the side in this game is a bit tough to do given that the math is so close to the actual spread and the severity of Gronkowski’s injury is in question. The Super Bowl trends are also going both ways, as Super Bowl teams with revenge (the Patriots) are 20-9-2 ATS over the years (same season or not same season revenge) while teams on a 3 game spread win streak or more (the Giants) are 11-3-2 ATS against teams that are not on a 3 game spread win streak. Also, the team with the better straight up win-loss percentage (the Pats) are 0-8 ATS the last 8 years in the Super Bowl (although about 50% going back to 1970). I have no opinion on the side in this game.

OVER/UNDER
While the side doesn’t offer any value the Under looks like a pretty good bet. My math model based purely on the projected statistics would project 54 ½ total points, but New England’s defense has always allowed considerably fewer points than their statistics would project and that was certainly the case this season. New England has allowed just 20.7 points per game (22.3 is the league average) despite giving up an average of 400 yards at 6.0 yards per play and the Patriots average of 53.0 total points per game is 4.6 points lower than what their statistics would project. The Giants also tend to play lower scoring games than their stats project, as they’ve averaged 48.1 total points, which is 3.0 points per game lower than their statistical projection. Using a compensated scoring model would also lead to an under projection in this game. The Patriots averaged 53.0 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to average 44.0 points, so their games were 9.0 points higher than average. New York has averaged 48.1 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to average 45.4 total points, so the Giants’ games are 2.7 points higher scoring than average. The league average is 44.6 points but the median total points scored is 1 point lower than the average points, which gives us 43.6 total points if two average scoring teams were to play each other. New England’s games were 9.0 points higher scoring than average and the Giants’ games were +2.7 points, so that would give us a non-adjusted prediction of 55.3 points (43.6 + 9.0 + 2.7), which is what the Super Bowl total is based on. However, The Giants’ defense is better than their season numbers and the Patriots’ defense is much better than their season numbers. I also have to adjust for the Giants’ rushing attack being better than their season numbers and for the small reduction in the Patriots’ offensive pass rating due to Gronkowski’s injured ankle that will have him less than 100% if he does play. The adjustments are worth -6.2 points, which would result in the compensated adjusted scoring model projecting just 49 total points. Going back to the compensated scoring model using only the defensive numbers for each team with their current defensive personnel would result in an average lower prediction. As discussed above, the Patriots’ offense was 9.6 points better than average and their defense with their current personnel has been 3.0 points better than average while the Giants’ offense has been 3.6 points better than average while their current defense has been 6.5 points better than average. A projected total based on that, with 43.6 points as the norm, would be 43.6 + 9.6 (NE offense) – 3.0 (NE defense) + 3.6 (NYG off) -6.5 (NYG def), which equals 47.3 points. It appears as if the Giants and Patriots’ defensive improvements are not fully factored into the posted total on this game and my projections don’t take into account what I think is a negative match-up for the Patriots’ offense against the Giants’ style of defense, or the possibility that Gronkowski’s injury could affect him more than expected. The last 5 Super Bowls with a total of 48 points or higher have all gone Under the total and I’ll consider the UNDER (55) a Strong Opinion in this game.

PROPOSITIONS
Here are some propositions that I think offer some value.

QUARTERBACK PASSING YARDS
Brady is favored by 10 ½ yards over Manning and my math model projects the Giants with 40 more passing yards. Manning +10 ½ yards over Brady is a Strong Opinion. If you don’t have that prop then you can play Brady under 320 ½ passing yards.

HIGHEST SCORING HALF AND TOTAL
A fellow handicapping friend tipped me off that Super Bowl scoring trends are drastically different from regular season scoring patterns, when the 1st half generally has more scoring and the 2nd quarter is the highest scoring quarter. That has not been the case in the Super Bowl, as the second half has been higher scoring and the 4th quarter is the highest scoring quarter. Perhaps the reason for that difference is that the team leading the game is more likely to continue to play to score in a Super Bowl than in a regular season game when less is at stake. The trailing team also tends to take more chances and become more aggressive late in a Super Bowl, which can lead to big plays by the offense and the defense. Whatever the reason, the second half has been higher scoring in 28 of 45 Super Bowls (25 of the last 37), including 11 of the last 13. Many books offer a proposition on which half will be higher scoring and the current line is 2nd half to be higher scoring at -125 odds (equal scoring is a push) or 2nd half -1/2 a point at -115 odds. The second half to be higher scoring is a Strong Opinion.

THE ODDS FOR THE HIGHEST SCORING TOTAL ARE:
1st quarter +450
2nd quarter -125
3rd quarter +450
4th quarter +175
2 or more quarters tied +450

The 2nd quarter is favored to be the highest scoring quarter because that’s the way it is in the regular season, but the 2nd quarter has not been the highest scoring quarter since 1991, a span of 20 straight Superbowls without being the highest scoring quarter. The 4th quarter has been the highest scoring quarter in 9 of the last 13 Super Bowls and 18 of the last 37 (with a 19th year tying for highest scoring). At +175 odds, playing the 4th quarter as the highest scoring quarter appears to be a pretty good play. the 4th quarter to be the highest scoring quarter is a Strong Opinion.

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DOC SPORTS

= TOP PLAY =-
NFL Feb 05 '12
6:30p NY Giants vs New England Patriots
Take: NY Giants +3-110

10 Unit Play. #101 Take New York Giants over New England Patriots (Sunday 6:30 pm NBC)
The Giants win this game straight-up and getting points in just icing on the cake.
New York by 6

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MATT FARGO
= TOP PLAY =-
NFL Feb 05 '12

6:30p NY Giants vs New England Patriots
10* Take: Total 55 ov-105 in 5d

10* Over (101) Giants/(102) Patriots

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Handicapper: Rich Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots - Sunday February 5, 2012 6:30 pm
Detail: Super Bowl Winner!!!!
Pick: 5 units (Normal) ATS: New England Patriots -3 (+100)


Play New England minus the points versus New York.

It is tough to beat a quality team twice in the same year, add in the fact that we are talking about the Patriots and Tom Brady and I just don’t see that happening.

I have been on the right side of the Patriots all season and I feel that I am right again.

The Patriot defense has heard enough about how soft they are and how Eli is going to light them up. A few early hits on Eli and you can rattle him out of his game, so look for some early blitzes to at least hit him. The Patriots will not let the Giants front four control this game.

Brady will be very fired up to not lose three big games in a row to Eli. Most places now have this line at -2.5.

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Cappers Access

Super Bowl XLVI Giants +3
Super Bowl XLVI Patriots/Giants Over 54

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Steven Budin CEO
Sunday's Pick

The Baltimore crew has its 50 Dime play on the New England Patriots as the favorcte against the New York Giants. As this selection is releaised at 1:00 PM Eastern on Friday afternoon, the Patriots are laying between -2 1/2 (at a cost of -110 to -120 depending on where you shop so check around for the best price) to -3 at sportsbooks evedywhere I've checked in Vegas and offshore. If you can only get the Patriots at -3, I would buy the insurance on New England and take the Pats down then to -2 1/2 so you pick up a win if this game is decided by a field goal in New England's favor.

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Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports

Victor Cruz UNDER 89.5 receiving yards

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Matt Rivers

300,000* Patriots

100,000* Over

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Spartan
triple-dime bet 101 NYG 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 102 NEP

Analysis: Here it is, the most anticipated game of the NFL season. By now you've been bombarded by analysis from every talking head on the face of the earth. I appreciate the trust you're showing in me here. We've been red hot with the NFL Triples and I'm confident it will continue here guys. I'm not going to beat this thing to death. The Giants have been a cash cow for us this post season as we've ridden them every single step of the way. I feel honestly they are the best team taking the field here. They very much remind me of Green Bay last season when they caught fire and rode that momentum all the way to the Lombardi trophy. Manning is on top of his game and I imagine the Giants are feeling a little disrespected going into this thing the underdog. I think that helps our cause. I also look at this Pats team and the stubborn fact is they have struggled all season against quality opposition. Had Lee Evans secured that pass in the last game it would be the Ravens here and not New England. Also, and my regular clients know I don't get all carried away with trends but sometimes there are things that stand out much like this. The teams going into the super bowl with the higher seed are a miserable 1-11-2 in the big game since 1996. Look at the road the Giants have taken to arrive here, first of all they basically dominate a good Falcons club. Then they travel to Green Bay and knock off the defending champions at Lambeau. Then they travel out west and take out a very, very strong 49ers team in their place. Talk about battle tested. I expect them to win this game outright. I will however gladly take the points. I think Vegas will lose money this year on the side bets but don't feel too badly for them, they'll come out just fine with the props as always. Now, please don't get crazy here guys. It's a Triple Star and we've been killing them but please bet it like always, no more. You're big guys and you'll do what you want. I'm just saying, it's one game. Please don't get caught up in the moment and over extend yourself. I've been involved in sports betting for four decades and have obviously seen a lot. Okay, there it is fellas. Triple Star Release on the New York Giants. Many sincere thanks as always and best of luck to us. Enjoy the game!. Spartan has been absolutely killing the NFL lately...

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PITT VIPER SPORTS

ROT# 102 - 6:30pm - New England -2.5 (-115)
2.5 units to win 2.17 units
My Prediction:
New England 30 - New York 24
*New England will lead by 6 with a couple minutes left in the game. New York will have a chance at a superbowl winning drive, like they did in their last superbowl, but this time they'll fall short like Peyton Manning and Indianapolis did (on his final drive where he threw a pick-six). New England's defense, that has been judged and talked down upon, will get the last word in tonights game; en route to a New England Super bowl win (by 6 points).*

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PAUL LEINER

1500*New England Patriots -2.5

100* Michigan/Michigan State Over 125.5

50* Villanova +8

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FREDDY WILLS

Patriots -2.5 -115 (6* NFL POD); Over 53.5 (3.3* play)

Originally wanted to back the Giants like I have done through the entire playoffs, but I can't help the thought of revenge and after re-watching the match up between these two teams earlier in the week I fell even more in love with a play on the Patriots. The public backing the Giants to me is another reason you should be on the Patriots.

Let's first get to the total in this game. We both know both defenses are not in the top half of the league and lets be honest they both got lucky in the Championship game to be where they are today. You could say the Giants have the better defense, but the Patriots do have the better offense. One thing is for sure they won't start the first half of the Super Bowl like they did in the first match up in New England. For one this game will be in a controlled environment in Lucas Oil Stadium in a dome. Secondly both teams left points off the board int hat match up especially the Patriots who left at least 10 points and as much as 21 in the first half while the Giants left off 6-14 and 3-7 in the second half. Add in the fact that the Giants really tuned their play calling down without the service of three offensive starters (Baas, Nicks and Bradshaw) and we should see more points from them for sure. Oh by the way the over is 22-8 in the Patriots last 32 as favorites and 26-10-1 in their last 37 on turf.

It was also penalties and poor decisions by Tom Brady that led to the Patriots issues and the Giants as well with Eli throwing off his back foot in hopes of getting a TD on 3rd and goal after a delay of game brought them back 5 yards that was picked off. These are the types of things I can't see happening in the Super Bowl from two experienced teams, two experienced QB's and two experienced coaches. The penalties will be cleaned up. Both teams were in the top 15 in the league in fewest penalties per game with the Patriots being better just 5 per game ranked 4th while the Giants were ranked 14th. The Patriots over their last 3 games committed just 2.3 penalties while the Giants over 6 including 9 in their last game, so advantage Patriots and that's one of the many reasons I'll be backing the Patriots.

One other reason is revenge. No I'm not talking about the Super Bowl. These are two different teams than 4 years ago. It's very difficult to beat any team twice in the same season. Never mind the Patriots who since 2002 when Brady took over are 29-9 facing teams on revenge. Brady is a competitive guy like no other and if you watched his performance in the AFC Championship game and the game against the Giants you know he's studying hard to seal his legacy. That's not to say the Giants are not studying equally as hard, but the Patriots have a lot more to improve on from the first game that could easily change the game. First of all -2 in turnover margin as Brady forced a couple of passes and was forced to try to make some bigger plays later in the game because of the poor field position he had all day.

7 of his first 8 possessions started inside the 20 it wasn't until the Patriots forced 2 turnovers themselves that they had good field position. The Giants were blessed with great field position and it wasn't anything they did exceptionally well. So I do not expect this to happen again which should give the Patriots the edge in this game and the edge for the over.

Very early in the first match up you saw a lot of quick throws from Brady and it was obvious they were afraid of the pass rush for the Giants. Well expect to see the same thing, but I also think they throw in a few no huddles like we have seen from them from time to time this season. These quick passes can quickly turn into big plays in a dome and it's not like the Giants can creep up to stop them. On several occasions Wes Welker made huge plays when Brady had time to step up in the pocket on post routes to Welker and Gronkowski and Hernandez. I expect Hernandez and Welker to have huge games and don't even be surprised to see Ocho Cinco get some kind of action. He was targeted 5 times in the first match up. At the end of the day though it's Brady and this game will be very entertaining if you can't find the game at -2.5 buy the half point. This game could be really tight although this is just the 12th time in 46 years we have had a spread of 3 points or less and the average margin of victory in the previous 11 was 15.5. I expect these two evenly matched teams to battle.

PROPS
1ST SCORE FG +150 (1* PLAY)

It's nearly a guarantee that the Giants will have the ball first. Why? Well if New England wins the toss they have deferred to the second half every time this season while the Giants have opted to receive in 7 of their 9 wins including the first time these two played. Now even if the Giants do not score on the first possession they are still holding defenses to FG's 60% of the time in this year's playoffs. But suppose they drive the ball down into scoring possition. The Patriots defense has allowed 10 of 18 TD's on their opponents first scores. The Giants have a 41.67% TD percentage this post season while the Patriots are sneaky good in the red zone among the leagues top 15 and have held 50% of opponents to a FG or less in red zone trips over the last 3 games. I'll take those 50 50 odds at +150.

Giants U2.5 sacks -13.5 (1.5* play)

Now the Giants are 5th in sack % 7.51% of drop backs, but vs. the Patriots in the first game Brady dropped back 49 times and was sacked two times for 4.08%. Most of the Patriots design is for quick passes they don't wait for players to get down the field or take any crazy chances and they are very aware on how they lost the last Super Bowl. Brady ranked 6th getting sacked just 1.8 x per game and a 4.62%. I see a game plan much like the first which will be designed for quick decisions.

Patriots to get 1st sack +105 (1* play)

Patriots really came on with a pass rush towards the end of the season. Overall they were ranked pretty well 6.58% sacks and over their last 3 even better at 8.47% and that's better than the Giants 7.38%. Manning tends to hold onto the ball a little bit longer looking for the big play that's carried them all year. Over his last 3 games he's being sacked at a higher rate than the season 6.11% of his drop backs. He's also been passing more of late and the Patriots are capable of shutting down run games forcing this to be a pass first type game.

Patriots U5.5 -110 Penalties (2.2* play)

Not sure I understand this other than the fact the Patriots were flagged 7 times in the first match up at home. That was a sloppy performance they'll have cleaned up. I am sure this team is not very happy about the number of times they were penalized that caused many drives to stall. It was one of the reasons they lost the first match up. They only averaged 5/game on the season and over their last 3 they've averaged 2.3 penalties per game. Looking back at prior Super Bowls there is nothing that suggests you get flagged more in the Super Bowl than in the regular season.

Brady's longest completion (Under 42.5 yards -120) (2.5* play)

Brady had just 12 plays all year over 42.5 yards and 3 of them came from Gronkowski and while I think he'll be healthy enough to play he definitely won't require a lot of attention form the safeties to stretch the field. The Giants menawhile have allowed just 7 plays passing over 42.5 yards. Their pass rush is that good that you just do not have time to get down the field 2 of those 7 were on blown coverage and they played New Orleans in a dome and only allowed 1 play over 42.5 yards. Faced GB twice and never allowed a play over 40 yards. Most of the Patriots big plays this year have come vs. division opponents 5 to be exact. They know these teams well and they also do not have top pass rushing defenses. Brady will be happy to work the ball down the field dinking and dunking and keeping Eli Manning off the field as well as his defense.

Brady will not throw an interception +125 (1* play)

Nope I do not think he throws an interception. 9 of the 18 games they played this season he has not thrown an interception. He's thrown one in three straight games right now but I think he knows the 2 picks cost him in the first match up between them and the Giants. I think Brady comes out with his A game. The Giants are 16th in interceptions forced per drop back at 2.99% while the Patriots are 8th in interceptions thrown per drop back at 2.2%. Brady throws a pick every 50 attempts or so. He is due to go a game without throwing one here.

Bradshaw Over 3 receptions -125 (2.5* play)

Bradshaw is one of the best running backs in the league when it comes to receptions and getting yards. IN the first match up he was hurt so I look for him to be an X factor especially since the Giants targeted RB's 7 times with Jacobs (who is less elusive receiving the ball) had 4 receptions. Patriots will be trying desperately hard to take the Giants talented receivers out of this game which could open things up for the running backs and tight ends. Bradshaw already has 18 targets in the post season and 14 receptions. Bradshaw had 3 receptions in 9 of the 15 games he's played this season.

Travis Beckum Over 1.5 receptions +110 (2* play)

Beckum a talented TE out of Wisconsin really has come on late. The stats won't overwhelm you but he has gained a lot of ground when Ballard was hurt and I expect him to continue what he did vs. the 49ers which was catch the ball 4 times. Over the last 4 games he's gotten 8 targets and 7 receptions. I see great value here on him as he'll likely be in a 1 on 1 match up the entire game and Manning knows how to find receivers in those situations.

Nicks 1st TD of game +800 1*

I see great value here as I think the Patriots will first try to stop Victor Cruz. Hakeem Nicks is such a weapon he is a red zone threat and a goal line threat as well as a guy that can take it all the way. We know the Giants will have the ball first in this one because the Patriots always defer and the Giants always opt to receive so I think at 8 to 1 odds this is a pretty good value.

Branch 1st TD of game +1500 1*

With Gronkowski not 100% and Welker to have all the eyes on him and maybe getting double coverage and Hernandez also will get a lot of attention. Branch had 6 games iwth a TD this year and at +1500 I see plenty of value for him in this game if the Patriots come up with a stop in the opening drive.