Thursday’s Betting Tips
Dodgers eyeing two Cubs pitchers
CFL: The Stampeders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
WNBA: Under is 17-5 in the Shock's last 22 road games.
WNBA: Sparks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
CFL: The Alouettes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.
WNBA: Lynx are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
WNBA: Fever are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
5 – The Los Angeles Sparks will play their fifth game in the span of eight nights Thursday at Indiana. So far the busy schedule hasn’t slowed them at all. They’re riding a run of 4-0 both straight up and against the spread as they head into Indiana as 3.5-point underdogs.
Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
Anthony Calvillo, Montreal Alouettes – Calvillo is still nursing a bruised left shoulder but has been able to practice this week and plans to start Thursday against Calgary. The news for Calgary’s starting quarterback isn’t so good. Drew Tate is out indefinitely with his own shoulder injury, forcing veteran Kevin Glenn to step in.
Game of the Day
Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes (-6, 56)
"It's the Midwest. It's the type of golf course that I grew up on. I can drive here from home. It's comfortable surroundings. I enjoy the course. I enjoy coming here. . . . But I really can't put a finger on it." – Steve Stricker about going for his fourth John Deere Classic title. He’s set as the tournament favorite at +700.
Notes and Tips
The New Jersey Nets reportedly signed Brook Lopez to a four-year, $60-million deal Wednesday, which effectively ended the recent talk of the Nets acquiring Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard. Lopez played just five games last year due to foot and ankle injuries but averages 17.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in his career. The Nets also finalized earlier deals with Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace and Joe Johnson.
The Knicks are set to match the Houston Rockets' four-year, $28.8 million offer to restricted free agent Jeremy Lin, retaining the point guard for at least the next three seasons. The Knicks said they would match any offer Lin receives to keep him, even after bringing veteran Jason Kidd in on a free-agent deal.
A CBSSports.com report indicates the Los Angeles Dodgers are talking with the Chicago Cubs about the availability of starting pitchers Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster. Garza has struggled with a 4-7 record and a 4.32 ERA, while Dempster, a free agent at the end of the season, is 4-3 in 13 starts with a tidy 1.99 ERA.
Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen told ESPN’s Dan LeBatard that he intends to use a closer-by-committee system at least to begin the second half. Miami’s bullpen ranks third from the bottom of the bigs with a 4.65 ERA.
The Warriors acquired veteran point guard Jarrett Jack from the New Orleans Hornets as part of the trade that will send Dorell Wright to Philadelphia. The Hornets received the draft rights to 2006 second-round pick Edin Bavcic in return. Bavcic played in Greece last season. Wright averaged 16.4 points and 5.3 rebounds in 2010-11 but his production dipped last season (10.3/4.6). Jack averaged 15.6 points and 6.3 assists with New Orleans last season.
Results 1 to 31 of 31
07-11-2012, 09:12 PM #1
Thursday Service Plays PREMIUM & FREE PICKS 7/12/12
07-11-2012, 09:13 PM #2
Today's CFL Picks
Calgary at Montreal
The Alouettes look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 Thursday games. Montreal is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-5 1/2).
THURSDAY, JULY 12
Game 121-122: Calgary at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 110.376; Montreal 117.483
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 7; 59
Vegas Line: Montreal by 5 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-5 1/2); Over
07-11-2012, 09:15 PM #3
PGA John Deere Classic
by Matt Fargo
With the Open Championship on deck for next week, the PGA Tour field takes a hit this week as players are either resting or playing in Europe.
The Open Championship is the one Major where players usually are not playing the prior week due to the significant travel time. Players not already in the Open Championship still have a shot to play as one place has been reserved for the leading player, not already exempt, who finishes in the top five at the John Deere Classic.
The John Deere Classic has been a mainstay on tour since 1972 and even though this is the 42nd anniversary, the tournament has gone through eight name changes and three courses. The event nearly died on several occasions back in the '70s, '80s and '90s but it somehow stayed above water until John Deere took over the sponsorship in 1999.
This is just the 14th year that the TPC at Deere Run has hosted the event which obviously coincides with the sponsor. The course is one of the easiest on the schedule. Last year Deere Run ranked 40th out of 51 courses in difficulty. This one has not been lengthened much as only 75 yards has been added since its inception in 2000. Also, the course has only three water hazards.
The scores are always very low as the winners have carded -22, -26, -20, -16, -18 and -19 the last six years and no winner has ever finished worse than -16. And that has been with a very light field. There was a 59 scored in the opening round by Paul Goydos two years ago, which was just the fourth ever 59 on tour. This year there are only two players that are ranked in the top 20 of the OWGR - Steve Stricker (13th) and Zach Johnson (17th).
Stricker (+650) is the favorite and is the three-time defending champion as he birdied the last two holes to win by one shot over Kyle Stanley last year. He become the first back-to-back-to-back winner of this event and he is trying to become the sixth player ever to win the same event four straight years. He won in Hawaii to open the year and has not won since but he has missed only one cut. No value here though.
Zach Johnson (+1,200) has not done much since his win at Colonial at the end of May as his best finish is a T41 in three starts. While current form is important, past history on a course is just as big and Johnson has had plenty of success here. Last year he finished T3, five shots back of Stricker, T21 in 2010 and T2 in 2009, three shots back of Stricker. If anyone is considered a serious challenger to the defending champion, it is Johnson.
After a slow start to the season Ryan Palmer (+2,000) has been playing exceptional. He last played at the AT&T National and finished T15 while prior to that he logged four top 10s in five events which included three top fives. He missed the cut in his last start at TPC Deere Run but that was in the midst of 10 missed cuts in 11 events so he clearly was off his game. He is certainly a different player now.
Jonathan Byrd (+2,500) was tied for second after the opening round last week at the Greenbrier Classic but faded to a T22. He has not missed a cut since March and in seven events since then, he has three top 10s as well as a T12 at THE PLAYERS. He missed the cut at the John Deere last year but he was not playing well and right now he is arguably playing his best golf since he won here in 2007.
Sean O'Hair (+4,000) is having a pretty solid season. He has missed only two cuts in 16 events and he is coming off a T7 at the Greenbrier Classic which was his first top 10 since a T2 at the Sony Open back in January. His current game fits well at TPC Deere Run. He is 12th in birdie average and birdies are the key here. He should know as he won the John Deere Classic in 2005 at -16.
For a longshot, we will take a look at Chez Reavie (+6,000). He has had a tough season with no top 10 finishes and he has missed the cut in half of his 18 starts. However, his two best finishes have been in his last two as he posted a T11 at the Travelers and a T15 at the AT&T National. Reavie has played this event only three times but his best finish came last year which was a T5 despite a Sunday 72.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the John Deere Classic – All for 1 unit
Zach Johnson (+1,200)
Ryan Palmer (+2,000)
Jonathan Byrd (+2,500)
Sean O'Hair (+4,000)
Chez Reavie (+6,000)
Record to date after 25 events: +24.1 Units
07-11-2012, 09:18 PM #4
PGA John Deere Classic
Tees Off: Thursday, July 12 **EARLY**
TPC Deere Run – Silvis, IL
Odds to Win Tournament
Steve Stricker 13-to-2
Zach Johnson 12-to-1
Nick Watney 20-to-1
Ryan Palmer 20-to-1
Jonathan Byrd 25-to-1
Tim Clark 30-to-1
Seung-Yul Noh 30-to-1
John Senden 30-to-1
Brendon de Jonge 30-to-1
Jeff Overton 30-to-1
Sean O’Hair 40-to-1
Charley Hoffman 40-to-1
Ryan Moore 40-to-1
K.J. Choi 40-to-1
Robert Garrigus 40-to-1
Carl Pettersson 40-to-1
Charles Howell III 40-to-1
Ken Duke 50-to-1
Scott Piercy 50-to-1
Blake Adams 50-to-1
Ben Crane 50-to-1
Bryce Molder 50-to-1
Pat Perez 50-to-1
Kyle Stanley 50-to-1
8 golfers 60-to-1
12 golfers 80-to-1
5 golfers 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 5-to-2
Steve Stricker’s quest for a four-peat will headline this year’s John Deere Classic. Stricker can complete just the sixth four-peat in Tour history, and the first by a golfer other than Tiger Woods since 1930. He tops this week’s list of best bets…
Steve Stricker (13/2): It’s not just the three-peat, but the way he won his third last year. Stricker was down a stroke with two holes to go when he buried a 15-foot birdie putt on No. 17, then had to hit out of a fairway bunker to set up a 25-foot game-winner. He simply owns Deere Run.
Sean O’Hair (40/1): His first career victory came here in 2005, and O’Hair looked sharp en route to a T7 at Greenbrier last week.
Charley Hoffman (40/1): He’s gone top-15 at Deere Run in two of the past three years, including a T7 last year. He finished T2 at the Travelers three weeks ago.
Tim Clark (30/1): Clark still doesn’t appear to be 100 percent after elbow surgery, but he did finish T4 at the Travelers Championship three weeks ago and has two top-10’s at Deere Run, including a runner-up in 2007 and a T7 in 2010.
Jonathan Byrd (25/1): Byrd won here in 2007. He’s still searching for some consistency, finishing just T22 at last week’s Greenbrier despite the second-most birdies on the week.
07-11-2012, 09:22 PM #5
Public Opinion: Solid Support for Underdog Stamps
Consensus percentages and odds current as of 8 p.m. ET, Wednesday.
Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes (-6, 56)
Maybe Montreal bettors are getting a little tired handing over their hard-earned cake. The Alouettes have dropped eight of their last nine games against the spread dating back to last season and went into this week with some quarterback controversy. Anthony Calvillo is set to start despite a bruised left shoulder, instead of backup Adrian McPherson, who put together a 97-yard scoring drive when he stepped in for the vet last week. Meanwhile, the Stamps will be without Drew Tate for at least five weeks, which leaves Kevin Glenn to take the snaps. Calgary has also covered the number in four of its last five meetings with Montreal.
Consensus: Stampeders, 58 percent
Tulsa Shock at Minnesota Lynx (18, 172)
The Minnesota Lynx finally came out of tailspin that saw them drop three in a row against the spread and straight up by smoking Tulsa 107-86, covering as 13.5-point favorites. Now with the Lynx returning to Minnesota for the rematch, oddsmakers are heaping chalk on the home team. The Lynx have covered in 17 of their last 25 home games, but without Rebekkah Brunson (calf) down low, this is a lot of points.
Consensus: Shock, 61 percent
07-11-2012, 09:24 PM #6
MLB Betting: Four Teams that Fight to the Finish
The two sides of the MLB schedule are about as opposite as black and white, hot and cold, Guillen and Maddon.
The games that follow the All-Star break are of a different breed. Factor in the grind of the 162-game schedule, scorching temperatures, a sudden rash of injuries, mass panic of the playoff race, and the second half of the MLB season makes April, May and June look like soft toss.
Some clubs crumble under the pressure, while other rise to the challenge.
It’s no surprise top-tier teams like the Philadelphia Phillies (36.61 units won after the All-Star break since 2007), New York Yankees (21.52 units), and Texas Rangers (13.59 units) have been the best bets after the break. However, wagering on these highly-taxed teams can burn you with one bad week (ie: Boston Red Sox -23.95 units after All-Star break since 2007).
Here are some other clubs, not among the World Series favorites, that have consistently made coin in the second half of the schedule:
Toronto Blue Jays (187-170 for 18.78 units after the All-Star break since 2007)
Depending on the Canadian-US exchange rate, the amount on money made on Toronto after the break can differ. But one thing is for sure, the Jays will pack your bankroll in the late summer months. Toronto has been in the black in all but one season following the break, including a solid 10.68 units down the stretch in 2010. The Blue Jays have been hit hard by injuries to their rotation this season but could make another last-minute push if those arms return in time.
Houston Astros (172-184 for 17.43 units after All-Star break since 2007)
How in the world can a team go below .500 and still make a bundle for bettors? Ah, the wonders of baseball betting. The Astros have been bad for a while, consistently giving them beefed up moneylines, especially when the club has nothing to play for in August and September. In 2008, Houston went a silly 42-24 in the back nine of the schedule, earning 23.91 units. Two years ago, it finished 40-33 after the break for 15.94 units. This year’s version limped into the All-Star hiatus with one win in their last 11 games and dealt star Carlos Lee to the Marlins.
Arizona Diamondbacks (186-169 for 14.93 units after the All-Star break since 2007)
The D-backs won the bulk of those units last summer, with a staggering 45-25 record following the break which stole the National League West crown and earned Arizona backers 18.36 units. The Desert Snakes had a similar finish in 2007, going 43-29 in the second part of the slate for 15.23 units. Arizona finished the first half of the 2012 schedule in style by sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers and are currently five games out of the NL wild card and four back of the Dodgers in the division.
Tampa Bay Rays (194-168 for 11.70 units after the All-Star break since 2007)
Despite winning the American League Pennant in 2008, the Rays remain one of the best under-the-radar clubs in baseball – HT goes to the Yankees and Red Sox for hogging all the headlines in the AL East. Tampa Bay went 42-26 following the break in 2008, bringing in 15.22 units, and was 42-30 in the second half for 10.68 units last summer, sneaking past Boston to snag the AL wild card. The Rays, in classic form, are hanging in the shadows heading into the break. They’re only three out of the wild card and closed the first half with a series win over Cleveland.
Milwaukee Brewers (191-167 for 11.66 units after the All-Star break since 2007)
Cleveland Indians (182-180 for 11.00 units after the All-Star break since 2007)
Chicago Cubs (191-168 for 5.33 units after the All-Star break since 2007)
07-11-2012, 09:27 PM #7
Scott Beats The Man
URSZULA RADWANSKA -130
07-11-2012, 09:30 PM #8
RYAN HARRISON -115 Jesse Levine (2 UNITS)
07-11-2012, 09:40 PM #9
07-12-2012, 08:40 AM #10
JOHN DEERE GOLF
2 TOURNAMENT LONG HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS:
JERRY KELLY -150 Chris Riley (3 UNITS)
STEVE STRICKER -136 Zach Johnson (2 UNITS)
07-12-2012, 08:45 AM #11
WNBA Basketball Picks
Los Angeles at Indiana
The Fever look to take advantage of an LA team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Indiana is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2).
THURSDAY, JULY 12
Game 651-652: Tulsa at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 104.780; Minnesota 120.185
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 15 1/2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 18; 166 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+18); Over
Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 110.441; Indiana 116.142
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3 1/2); Under
07-12-2012, 08:46 AM #12
Thursday.... In the CFL take Calgary +6 over Montreal
07-12-2012, 08:48 AM #13
StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets
WNBA LOS ANGELES at INDIANA
Play Against - Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) good free throw shooting team - making >=76% of their free throws, on Thursday nights.
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )
WNBA LOS ANGELES at INDIANA
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, in July games.
125-103 since 1997. ( 54.8% 0.0 units )
11-6 this year. ( 64.7% 0.0 units )
WNBA TULSA at MINNESOTA
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 70.5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread.
187-110 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.0% 66.0 units )
20-14 this year. ( 58.8% 4.6 units )
07-12-2012, 09:22 AM #14
Lillestrom + Tromso UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Norway
(System Record: 257-11, won last game)
Overall Record: 257-223-26
07-12-2012, 09:25 AM #15
LA Sparks +4 AND ML
07-12-2012, 09:41 AM #16
Baseball: Second Half Surges
The first half of the 2012 baseball season is in the books. There were surprising winners, such as the Indians, Nationals, Marlins, Reds and Orioles, and a ton of injuries to key players. There were also some surprises such as the defending champion Cardinals playing close to .500 baseball and the struggles of the big payroll Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox. With the surprises out of the way, here's a look at some teams that might be active at the trading deadline and primed to make a second half surge.
Tampa Bay Rays: You can make the argument that pitching is the key to a sustained second half run. If so, the Rays could be a fun team to watch. Who wouldn't want a rotation anchored by David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, James Shields, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb? Moore is just 22 years old, Cobb is 24 and Hellickson is 25 and flew through their system with ace potential - and has been just as dominant at the big league level.
The offense has been in the middle of the pack, though they are sixth in steals, so the Rays can manufacture runs. There are plenty of lefties in the lineup and note that the Rays just went on a 20-9 run against right-handed starters. They are also 33-16-2 under the total in the Rays last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Would you deal a great young arm for a big bat?
Detroit Tigers: Detroit was a disappointment in the first half, with a team ERA near the bottom of the league and an up and down offense despite the addition of slugger Prince Fielder, who's been great. However, there is plenty to like about this team, with speedy CF Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta.
The starting staff has a rare ace in Justin Verlander, who has been outstanding but has gotten little help from the offense. 22-year old lefty Drew Smyly came up from the minors and has been very good. They would like some consistency out of righties Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, otherwise the Tigers might be shopping for an arm before the trade deadline in the wide-open AL Central. Keep in mind the Tigers are 7-20 in their last 27 games following a win - that won't help winning streaks!
San Francisco Giants: Speaking of wide-open races, the NL West is between the Dodgers and Giants. The San Francisco offense continues to struggle, but they did when they won it all in 2110. There are four reasons to believe the Giants won't go away, though: Cain, Vogelsong, Lincecum and Bumgarner. San Francisco has dynamite foursome which keeps away losing skids, fifth in baseball in team ERA despite the struggles of Lincecum, who lost weight (and his fastball?) in the offseason. That pitching allows them to beat up weak teams: The Giants are 35-17 on the road against teams with a losing home record. They are also 18-7-2 under the total as a favorite. While most teams will be shopping for pitching before the trade deadline, the Giants will be looking for bats and have arms to deal.
Boston Red Sox: Everything went wrong for Boston in April, from injuries, to a new manager trying to find his way and a disastrous bullpen. But new skipper Bobby Valentine did a good job of re-working the pen and the results were impressive in May and June. The offense has been strong all year, in the top 5 in runs, batting average and slugging. Even better news is that they accomplished that without starting outfielders Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury, both expected back for the second half.
The key will be the pitching, which is the big question mark. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester should improve after subpar starts, while kid lefty Felix Doubront has been a big plus. Clay Buchholz has been an enigma but got significantly better in mid-May before another recent injury while Daisuke Matzusaka is back in the rotation. The over is 41-20-2 in the Red Sox's last 63 games as a favorite. Red Sox are also 43-16 in their last 59 home games with the total set at 11 or higher.
Los Angeles Angels: The super-team in March got off to a dismal start and watched the Texas Rangers roar into first place. Quietly, though, Mike Sciocsia's club began to hit behind newcomer Albert Pujols and wins followed, winning 10 of 14 in late May and a sizzling June. While the offense has plenty of star power, the pitching staff is loaded, fourth in baseball in team ERA and second in the AL, behind Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Jerome Williams and newcomer C.J. Wilson. Would you like to face that in October? If they can get there.
07-12-2012, 10:18 AM #17
John Deere Classic Picks
The John Deere Classic
Date: July 12th-15th, 2012
Course: TPC Deere Run – Silvis, IL
TV: The Golf Channel/CBS
by Evergreen, Golf Betting Handicapper.
If you're talking tractors, they say that nothing runs like a Deere, but that is also true when talking about the scoring pace at the John Deere Classic. The quaint Midwest stop on the PGA Tour has one of the most prolific scoring environments year after year and fans are always treated to a ton of birdies. Paul Goydos became a member of the "59" club at the TPC Deere Run in 2010 but it has been Steve Stricker that has owned this course in recent years and he takes on the field this week looking for his fourth consecutive John Deere title. The field would be considered average by Tour standards as many pros are already across the pond in preparation for next week's British Open but there are several fan favorites remaining along with a large group looking to take advantage of this last chance to get in the British field.
The TPC at Deere Run is a gorgeous layout but it has little defense against the best golfers in the world. The 7,258 yard, par-71 track is tree-lined and features well-placed bunkers and doglegs but the most accurate players on the Tour tend to eat it up. The players do have to hit it in the fairways to score but the greens roll true and birdies will be had in bunches. The course ranked as the 10th easiest in 2011 play, so look for a fun event that features a lot of players in the mix come Sunday afternoon and winning score pushing 25-under par.
Each week, we take a look at the online betting sites and highlight a few players that we think can win it all. We give you a short, middle and long odds pick to win and breakdown a couple of head to head picks that you can find at any golf sportsbook.
Here are our picks to win the 2012 John Deere Classic.
Short Favorite: Zach Johnson (12 to 1 odds to win)
It just doesn't seem plausible that anyone can win four years in a row and with Stricker getting little more than 5 to 1 odds to win, it's time to look in another direction. Johnson is about as close to a Stricker clone as you can get and has a solid Deere resume that sports two top-3 finishes in the last three years. Zach is 9th in the all-around stat on the strength of his top-15 ranks in putting, scrambling and fairways hit. His scoring average is 10th best entering the week and he already has a win and two second place finishes this year.
Middle of the Road: Ryan Palmer (25 to 1 odds to win)
Here is a nod to betting the hot hand. Palmer has all four of his top-10 finishes in his last six starts and that puts him as the hottest player in the field this week. The stats back it up too with Ryan in the top-20 in total putting, putting average, birdie and scoring average. When the big guns on Tour elsewhere, another a top-10 performance may translate into a win.
Longshot: Robert Garrigus (40 to 1 odds to win)
Garrigus has come close to victory twice this year with two runner-up finishes already and is fresh off a T4 at the AT&T. Robert is not your typical pick for this course as he favors hitting the ball a ton and slashing it on the green from wherever he finds it. It could spell trouble if he is overly wild but if he can merely keep it in play; he should be able to capitalize on his 15th best greens in regulation stat. Garrigus is not strong putter by Tour standards but should be able to be aggressive on the Deere Run greens and that always helps with the makes. For a long player, he is a surprisingly good overall ballstriker and enters the week 20th in birdie average.
Head to Head Matches *picks to win are based on all four rounds. Check with your favorite online bookie for single round matches and a variety of prop bets.
Tim Clark (-115) v. Jeff Overton (-115) (our pick to win: Overton)
In past years, Clark would be an easy choice as he has typically been one of the better tee to green players out there but his GIR% has fallen off and so has the birdie average. Overton is a bit wild at times but still notches a top-15 birdie average, is the better putter so far this year and is nearly 75 spots better on the scoring average list than Clark.
Sean O'Hair (-115) v. Carl Pettersson (-115) (our pick to win: Pettersson)
You could simply pick big Carl based on finishes this year but a strong advantage with the putter makes him a solid pick for Deere Run. O'Hair is making his share of birdies but the results haven't been there due to too many mistakes and there are places where this course will make you pay for mis-hits. Both players hit about the same amount of fairwyas and greens so this one comes down to the short game and Pettersson gets the nod.
07-12-2012, 10:24 AM #18
Canadian Bacon: Week 3 CFL Preview and Picks
So much for all that talk of the East being the punching bag of the CFL after Week 1. At least for bettors.
Eastern Division teams covered the spread in both meetings against the West last week while the other two games featured inter-divisional clashes. It was a complete flip-flop on the over/under also last week when the over went 3-1, compared to the week before when the under went 3-1.
Calgary at Montreal (-6, 56)
Quarterback injuries are the storyline in the season’s first rematch. Calgary’s starting QB Drew Tate is out after separating his shoulder last week while Montreal’s star Anthony Calvillo is probable after bruising his.
The good news for the Stamps is they have one of the best and most experienced backups in the league in Kevin Glenn. The bad news is the Als will be hungry to turn the tables after suffering a 38-10 drubbing in Calgary in Week 1.
07-12-2012, 10:39 AM #19
UEFA U19 European Championship
Spain U19 v France U19
France U19 (+0.5 Handicaps)
UEFA U19 European Championship
England U19 v Greece U19
Greece U19 (+0.5 Handicaps)
07-12-2012, 11:28 AM #20
ATB BUY IN: 250 Points
MENTION YOU FOLLOW WO AND THE SERVICE FORUM AND JOIN AT ATB AND GET A FREE ENTRY!
ATB wants you to do one last HUGE contest before we get into football season. This contest will be almost the same as the 15 day trail but I tweaked some of the rules so read carefully.
ATB wants to test your handicapping skills over a 30 day period. Here is the deal…you need to make 30 picks within the next 30 days. Max 1 picks per day. The pick has to be a ML for the full game only for WNBA, Baseball, Arena Football and CFL sorry no Golf, Tennis or any other sport. The line also has to be in the America Bookies Live Lines.
You win, you move on to the next day, you lose you are out… but there a catch…most streak contests once you’re out your done but ATB we do things different. We will let you right back in the game to start the streak over again because there are prizes for almost every streak. There is also one more twist to the contest, if you pick a ML underdog +150 or more you get one “save.” This means that when you lose a game you can use your “save” for a second chance. The "save" serves as a push for the day you don't move up in the streak but you don't lose your spot either. If you pick a ML underdog of +200 or more you get a "free pass" meaning you can replace any lose with a win and move your streak forward. The more underdogs you pick, the more saves you can tally up (max 8 saves/free pass per 30 days).
You might say what if no one hits the 30 game streak? At ATB we want everyone to win so if you can’t hit all 30 games the longest streak wins.
If there is someone with the same streak at the end, the tie breaker is most overall plus units. If you don't make a play a certain day it will be counted as -100 units. The second tie breaker is fastest entry into the contest faster you get in the better chance you have to win the last tie breaker.
All Lines are found on the link below:
America Bookie Opening Lines
30 Game Streak or Longest Streak:
Samsung -Galaxy Tab 2 7.0 with 8GB Memory -Titanium Silver plus 1500 ATB POINTS
If someone also gets 30 for 30 add 5000 ATB Points.
25 for 30 or the second longest streak: Apple® - iPod touch® 8GB* MP3 Player (4th Generation) – Black plus 1000 ATB points
20 Game Streak or the third longest streak $50 Amazon Gift Card plus 750 ATB Points
15 Game Streak or fourth longest streak: 25$ Best Buy Card plus 500 ATB Points
10 Game Streak or fifth longest streak: $15 Dollar I Tunes Card plus 250 ATB Points
Picks start July 15th
Any questions feel free to PM or email at firstname.lastname@example.org
THINGS ARE GETTING HOT AT ATB
I am always here for the members email@example.com
Follow me on twitter: ATBCG
07-12-2012, 11:54 AM #21
Spain u19- Franceu19
Pick France +0.5
07-12-2012, 11:57 AM #22
WNBA 45-31 Last 76 picks +$2060
Game: Los Angeles at Indiana (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Indiana Fever -4 (-110)
Los Angeles has won four in a row, but let's not get overly excited. If we go back another three games they are 4-3 in their last seven. And, they face a tough task here as the Sparks have lost five straight to Indiana in this building. Three of LA's recent wins were at home. Their only road win came as an -8.5 point favorite over lowly Phoenix. On the road, LA has trouble defensively, allowing 85.7 per game (vs. 72.7 at home). Indiana is hot themselves, having won five of their last seven. Their specialty is from beyond the arc where they take 21 attempts, hitting a ridiculous 42%. That spells trouble for the Sparks who are just 8-19 ATS the past three seasons vs. good 3-point shooting teams (teams hitting 36%+ from beyond the arc). While Indiana's defense is suspect, no matter, LA is only 11-23 ATS the past two seasons vs. teams that allow 73+ points per game. Meanwhile, the Sparks are 5-13 ATS vs. teams that can score (those averaging 73+ points per game). Finally, as a small road dog of under +7 points the past two seasons, LA is 1-8 ATS. This is simply a bad matchup for the Sparks. Lay the points with the Fever.
07-12-2012, 12:29 PM #23
One of the growing resources utilized by the masses is the public betting information offered by a variety of sources. There are many sports bettors, sports services, and sports betting information sites that need a short cut use this data. When given the choice the above mentioned would choose to be on the side of the "house", or that opposite of the betting public. Alternatively, others subscribe to the theory that there is "strength in numbers". Neither belief is far from foolproof and given some initial limited success with either can be a fool's gold with no pun intended.
I will say this. If you're going to use this logic applying it to basketball and football has a lot more substance than baseball. It's a proven fact over the years that the most money wagered is on football. The books then see that money wagered on football cut by 50 to 75 per cent on basketball, and 90 per cent or more on baseball. Simple mathematical logic would tell you that books are more inclined to move baseball money lines more rapidly when a large amount of money comes in on one side because there's just not enough volume of bets coming in that can offset the big money. My logic in this regard is simple. Not all large bets are sharp bets. Then again if it's from a Las Vegas Wise Guy who's a proven winner then what's to say the public isn't all over the same side?
There are no short cuts as it applies to what a true sports handicapper does. It strictly hours of a daily research, developing successful theories, and having the ability to recognize value. Successful sports handicappers can care less about any other opinions because they consider their wagers and selections to be razor sharp. They realize that every day or week won't always be a winning one but that their methods will make a substantial profit over the course of time.
All of which brings me to this point. There's a distinct difference between a true full time professional sports handicapper and a sports service. A lot of successful sports services use this simple reverse theory and then spend the majority of time dreaming up a sales pitch to deceive potential clients. The old cliché of throwing something up against the wall and hoping it sticks describes their techniques the best. A successful sports handicapper spends the majority of time perfecting his craft and then the product will sell itself. Of course besides making money on their own wagers they also still need to do some degree of marketing like any thriving business does to bring in a constant flow of new customers. The difference being the marketing is believable, realistic, documented, and done with a high degree of ethics. Then why do they need to sell their picks if they're that good some would ask? Now that's a good question! The answer comes in the form of simple math and is taught in Business 101. The more successful their winning percentage (product) is the greater the incoming revenue stream, and the larger the client base becomes. Consequently the larger their bankroll becomes allows them to increase their bets in a more rapid fashion. It all starts with the hardest part, which is the product, and the rest then fits like a glove.
I once had an owner of a successful sports service located in South Florida say to me that the only difference between the time I take to do my work compared to his selections only added up to between 2% to 4% winners. His point was my time would be better served spending more on selling the product than it would be to better the product. My initial response was to say he was a bit low on his estimate but I bit my tongue so as not to be confrontational. However, let's be hypothetical and say he was somewhat accurate. At 4% a $1000.00 bettor would make an additional $8400.00 more per 100 bets based on 10% juice, a $500.00 better makes $4200.00 more, and a $100.00 better makes $840.00 more. Then when you factor in the fees your clients pay you, the fact you are wagering your own money, how's 4% better not worth the extra time and hard work? Those same types of individuals will also make every excuse as to why their selections aren't monitored by a credible independent source. For them it's much easier to make up records when you can't maintain a clientele for any reasonable period of time. Then again you know what they say about pathological liars they actually believe themselves over time. At the end of the day I sleep very well and am able to wake up looking in the mirror. I'm more than okay in what I see.
07-12-2012, 12:39 PM #24
Tulsa vs Minnesota UNDER 168
07-12-2012, 12:53 PM #25
WOMENS TENNIS THURSDAY
CARLA SUAREZ NAVARRO -240 Anna Tatisvili *5dimes* (3 UNITS)
07-12-2012, 12:58 PM #26
07-12-2012, 02:44 PM #27
Montral Alouetts -7 and UNDER 55.5
07-12-2012, 03:10 PM #28
2* Montreal / Calgary UNDER 55
07-12-2012, 03:44 PM #29
2012 MLB Run Line Winners and Losers
by Joe Gavazzi
Since beginning to track run line results 3 years ago, the one thing that has remained very constant has been the fact that all MLB games are decided by 2 or more runs 70-71% of the time. With that as a backdrop, let's take a look at the results of 11 teams through the All Star Break in 2012 that have deviated enough from the norm to consider them meaningful as we approach the second half of the season. One thing to keep in mind is that approximately 65-66% of home wins are by 2 or more runs while 75-76% of away wins are by 2 or more runs. This is quite simply because the home team gets only 8 at bats for a game if they are leading after 8 1/2 innings of play.
Atlanta Braves With the current makeup of this Atlanta team, these results don't necessarily make sense to me. As a result, I don't have great confidence they will continue in the 2nd half….but here they are.
35/46 Atlanta wins have been by 2 or more runs.
33/39 Atlanta losses have been b y 2 or more runs including 20/22 on their home field.
St. Louis Cardinals L&L, that is Lynn and Lohse. If someone would have told you that combination would have been leading the way instead of anticipated aces Carpenter and Wainwright, you would have been hesitant to predict this continued road result for the Cards. That is especially true without the leadership of LaRussa in the dugout and Pujols at the plate. Nonetheless, this trend has continued since last season.
63/75 St. Louis road wins have come by 2 or more runs including 20/23 this season.
Colorado Rockies No surprise here. The Rockies miserable starting pitching and a bullpen that is not much better has often led to Colorado getting blown out. Even at home, their big bats are unable to keep contact.
As a result, 42/52 losses have been by 2 or more runs including 22/25 on their home field. Here is a trend that could well continue.
Arizona Diamondbacks The D Backs have struggled around the .500 mark most of the season, both home and road. Now, the starters are dropping like flies. But a surprisingly good bullpen has been able to maintain leads.
It has resulted in the fact that 37/42 wins have come by 2 or more runs.
That includes 17/19 road wins.
In a surprisingly dichotomous way, 17/21 home losses have been by 2 or more runs.
San Diego Padres Once again this season, the Padres are struggling to score runs at Petco. They average just 3 RPG at home, compared to 4 RPG away. They are being outscored at home by more than a run per game, the only team other than KC to have that dubious distinction.
For the last 2 years, 66/83 home losses have been by 2 or more runs, including 22/27 home losses this year. As the Padres fall further out of reach from post season play, this trend could well continue.
NY Yankees No Sabathia, no Pettite, no Rivera, NO MATTER! There has been no power outage in the Bronx this sweltering summer of 2012. NYY, with the best record in baseball, continues to roll up margin victories.
In the last 2 seasons, 116/150 wins have been by 2 or more runs including 40/52 this year.
The success has been true both home and away.
The current home streak sees them with 109/137 home wins by 2 plus, while 64/80 road wins have been by 2 or more runs.
Baltimore Orioles There are not nearly as many manager trends in MLB as there are coaching personality profiles in College hoops. But Buck's boys have shown continued proclivity to get blown out when they are losing.
This season, 34/40 Baltimore losses have been by 2 or more runs.
That continues a road trend which in the last 2 seasons has seen 60/76 road losses by 2 or more runs including 18/20 this year.
Toronto Blue Jays Not sure I am buying into this half season trend particularly with the Toronto rotation injured and underachieving and the bullpen in the bottom third of MLB ratings.
Nonetheless, 38/43 Toronto wins have been by 2 or more runs this year.
Perhaps it would be more important to watch the dichotomous trend that has seen 17/19 Toronto home losses by 2 or more runs.
In total, of the 42 home games being played by the Blue Jays, only 4 have been decided by exactly 1 run.
Cleveland Indians The rubber band hasn't snapped quite yet, like it did in 2011, but it would not surprise this bureau if it happened soon. With a bullpen only notable by its ineptitude, the Tribe has gotten blown out often.
A whopping 36/41 losses have come by 2 or more runs, a situation that may well persist in 2012.
Los Angeles Angels LAA struggled to get their offense on track in the first 6 weeks. But now that the bats are booming, they are starting to win by margins.
In fact, 42/48 wins have come by 2 or more runs.
The improving bullpen is good enough to extend those marks as long as their sluggers keep hitting.
Texas Rangers Across the board, the Rangers have arguably the best combination of hitting and pitching numbers in the business. Thus, it is no surprise that they continue to be a margin team in 2012.
They are outscoring the opposition by almost 1 full run a game.
That has translated into the fact that 41/52 wins have come by 2 or more runs.
Their excellence, both home and away, has shown in this category.
In the last 2 seasons, 68/89 home wins have been by 2 or more runs and 65/75 road wins have been by 2 or more runs.
With prices escalating on Texas in the 2nd half of the season, this is a team worthy of run line wagering.
One final suggestion when choosing to play a game on the run line:
Handicap your selection first, then go to the run line results to see if those numbers reinforce a blowout win, or loss. If so, look at the opponents numbers to make sure they confirm this thinking.
Remember, many savvy players often split their action on a game between the money line and the run line.
07-12-2012, 06:57 PM #30
4* Montreal -6.5 over Calgary (7:30PM EST)
07-12-2012, 07:10 PM #31
MLB Friday Thoughts............
Arizona at Cubs: We've SO been on the Kennedy fade train, especially at home, but on the road he's been "respectable". The Cubs absolutely lit him up only three weeks ago at Chase, and that wasn't the first time they'd had success against him. D-back win three straight against the Dodgers and MUST keep winning NOW since they sit in third in the NL West. I'm not normally one to back Maholm either, and he himself was torched in that same game against Kennedy three weeks ago, but aside from a long ball or two in Wrigley, he's been solid at home. Probably couldn't see taking the D-backs here, and probably not enough value in the Cubs, and with a big total expected, I'd almost have to lean under, but that'd be a tough bet to make. Lean Cubs and under.
Detroit at Baltimore. Probably the quintessential matchup of the under achieving versus the over achieving teams. Baltimore had a pretty rough West Coast trip but they faced some pretty tough pitchers in Seattle and Los Angeles, and their bullpen let them down as well. I don't like the fact that Roberts went back on the DL, either. Tigers come in with five straight wins (all at home) and have started scoring some runs, but Fister has simply been fade material most of the season, and the Orioles have hit him very well individually. It looked like Hammel was wearing down a bit those last two starts against Seattle and the Halos, but he without a doubt the Orioles best and most consistent starter. Because of the aforementioned the total ought to be higher than it should be, but with rested arms I'd have to think it's the Orioles and under in this one at the moment.
Cleveland at Toronto: For all of the Masterson love at the betting window, he's 5-8 and the Indians are 7-11 in his starts this season. However, Cleveland IS a .500 team on the road and BECAUSE it's Romero, even though he's having a rougher season than expected, the Jays might well be over prices here. The Indians off a REAL rough ninth inning loss to the Rays that they have to stew on for a few days, while Toronto continues to be a feast or famine team. Tough to know whether Lawrie's back is going to allow him to play, but Masterson on the road has been terrible regardless. They HAVE seen Masterson, and only Bautista has done anything with him, and yes when we fade the Indians it's typically against LHP. BUT, LHH's have been far more successful than RHH against Romero this season, and most of the Tribe are not exceptions. I'd have to lean Tribe and over at this point.
Washington at Miami: I think instinctively people are going to want to take the Nationals here, and even more so after Johnson's last outing at Milwaukee. The thing is that before that, he'd gone five straight games giving up two or less earned runs. I could maybe attribute that Brewers game to a hot Milwaukee team and Johnson losing focus before the break. Maybe. Zimmerman's been almost unhittable the last five or six starts, but it hasn't been against the stiffest competition, and if I could find a weakness it'd be that he's given up a lot more flyball outs. The Fish have fared better against him than the Nats have against Johnson. So, you've got one desperate team in Miami facing a team that can all but put them out of this quick, as they've got ten game lead over the Marlins. I'd probably have to lean to the Fish a bit here, giving a bit more weight to the mindset of the two teams as opposed to the numbers.
Mets at Braves: This is another series that could go a long way towards deciding who's going to chase Washington and who's not. Atlanta certainly has the momentum having beaten the tar out of the Phillies, but how much does the rest hurt. It can. But, their bullpen did need a rest, and Dillon Gee was supposed to start this game for the Mets, but is now on the 15 day DL. The Santana is likey scratched with an ankle injury, leaving not only Chris Young to start, but perhaps straining a bullpen that had been suspect at best. Mets are in a tough spot here since they've got the Nationals in Washington next. And Hudson who we usually trust and pitched great in Philadelphia just got another cortisone shot in HIS ankle. Have to lean to the home team, although believe it or not the Braves are under .500 at home this season. Think the under might be a better option, at least at this point without seeing numbers.