Tuesday Service Plays PREMIUM & FREE PICKS 7/17/12

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Rounding the Bases: The Best Bets in the Big Leagues

Every week we take a moment to look at the best and worst bets in baseball from the past seven days.

Hot team: Atlanta Braves

Week’s record: 3-0
Upcoming sked: vs. San Francisco, at Washington

The Braves lost their most effective starting pitcher (Brandon Beachy) but almost a month to the day later they may have found a temporary replacement in Ben Sheets. The former Brewer ace hadn’t pitched for two seasons before toeing the rubber on Sunday. Sheets pitched great and Atlanta won its seventh straight game.

The lineup is balanced, the rotation is reliable and the bullpen is improving. Look out Washington – the Braves might just finish first in the NL West yet.

Cold team: Minnesota Twins

Week’s record: 0-3
Upcoming sked: vs. Baltimore, at Kansas City

The Twins are on a 5-game losing skid and are just 1-7 over their last eight. They’ve used 11 different starting pitchers this season and their rotation has surrendered more home runs than any other team in baseball. Other than that, everything’s fine in Minnesota.

Over team: New York Yankees

O/U record: 38-49-1
Upcoming sked: vs. Toronto, at Oakland

The big bats in the Bronx Bombers lineup are starting to heat up in a big way. New York has scored five or more runs in seven straight games, including eight runs off Jered Weaver and the Angels on Sunday. Curtis Granderson has homered in two straight games and is on a five-game hitting streak.

Under team: Colorado Rockies

O/U record: 48-38-2
Upcoming sked: vs. Pittsburgh, at San Diego

The Rockies fragile, four-man pitching staff has been responsible for a lot of the club’s overs this season. Things have been a bit more respectable in July (3.98 ERA) and the offense has dropped off a bit too. The Rockies have scored just 31 runs in 11 July games. The under, by the way, is 8-1 in Colorado's last nine contests.

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Tuesday's Streaking & Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs (4-3, 3.05 ERA)

Remember when Wood was fast-tracked up the Reds minor league system? Remember how good that guy was before he started stealing designer t-shirts from the mall? Cincy turfed the kid but the Cubs are really one club’s garbage is another cellar-dweller’s future ace.

Chicago is 4-0 in Wood’s last four starts (three as underdog) and the lefty has produced a quality start in six of his last seven trips to the bump.

Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics (6-7, 3.80 ERA)

Bartolo missed a start or two at the end of June but he’s looked great since coming off the DL. The 39-year-old has allowed just two earned runs and one walk over his last 14 2/3 innings pitched. The A’s are 4-1 in his last four outings and the under is 5-1 in his last six appearances.

SLUMPING

Erik Bedard, Pittsburgh Pirates (4-10, 4.80 ERA)

This Canadian southpaw is the weakness link in an otherwise respectable Pittsburgh starting rotation. The Bucs are winless in Bedard’s last five starts and the over is 3-1-1 over the same stretch. He’s given up four or more runs in each of his last three trips to the hill.

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (2-6, 5.80 ERA)

There’s got to be a collective groan coming from the Brewer’s dugout on days Wolf takes the mound. The veteran lefty has allowed four or more runs in four straight starts and Milwaukee is 2-8 in his last 10 appearances.

Wolf carries a bloated 1.42 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) since the beginning of June into Tuesday’s start.

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NCAAF Betting Preview: Who's the Daddy in the MAC?
by Marc Lawrence

In the battlefield of conference shuffling and expansion gone wild, Temple is old news and Massachusetts is new in the 2012 Mid-American Conference.

And while the Minutemen will not be eligible to play in the MAC title game or a bowl contest this season, UMass is thrilled to be transitioning into the FBS wars this campaign.

Entering its 66th year of gridiron competition, the Mid-American Conference will once again play a balanced schedule, meaning each team will play eight conference games in 2012.

Here’s hoping the ledger is more balanced than its been the last three years when only five teams in the MAC West Division managed to finish the season with a winning record. This on the heels of the 2008 campaign when only Buffalo was on the plus side in the East Division.

Sixteen players from the MAC dotted Super Bowl rosters last year, 15 the year before. That was more than the Pac 12 and the Big East, with only the SEC, the Big 10 and the ACC accounting for players in the big game than the MAC. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the most success using the MAC as a fertile breeding ground. Two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH) and league defensive MVP James Harrison (Kent State) each hail from the MAC.

This is definitely a league that is wide open and one that likes to mix things up. Nine different teams have appeared in the last seven MAC Championship games while 12 different MAC schools have appeared in a bowl game in the last eight seasons.

And speaking of bowls, keep this note handy once the bowl games roll around: after going 3-13 SU and 2-13-1 ATS in bowl games since the 2008 calendar year, the MAC went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as bowlers last season.

Amazingly, when traveling as favorites on the non-conference road the lightweight MAC is a staunch 17-8-1 ATS laying points, including 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS versus foes without a win on the season.

Note: Team writeups by this author were excerpted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

AKRON – (*7/6)

Team Theme: T-BOWING

After suffering 1-11 blowout seasons the last two years, the Rubbermakers changed tires, replacing Ron Ianello with Terry Bowden – from the same dadgum Bowden coaching clan we’ve learned to love in the past.

The first order of work for coach T-Bow, who led Northern Alabama to three consecutive Division II appearances the last three seasons, will be to improve a rush offense that has averaged less than 120 YPG each of the last three seasons.

Good news is the Zips will host only one foe that had a winning season last year. That’s a good thing considering they are 1-17 SU and 3-14-1 ATS away versus greater than .400 MAC foes of late. That and the fact there are only 65 scholarship players dotting this year’s roster.

Stat You Will Like: Bowden is 15-2 SU and 11-6 ATS in lined games versus losing teams.

PLAY ON: at Tennessee (9/22)

BOWLING GREEN – (*8/10)

Team Theme: WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES

Last year the Falcons featured 81 players that were either sophomores or younger (including 33 of 53 players on the two-deep roster) and were coming off a two-win campaign in 2010. This year they return 18 starters from unit that improved by three wins while gaining 90 YPG on offense, 23 YPG on defense, 6 PPG on scoring offense and 5 PPG on scoring defense.

Further examination finds nine of the top 10 linemen, the top four linebackers and all five secondary starters back from a 4-2-5 defense. For head coach Dave Clawson, it’s that magical combination where youth turns to experience in one fell swoop. Behind veteran QB Matt Schilz, the Falcons look to soar in 2012.

Stat You Will Like: The Falcons are 7-3 SU and ATS away during the regular season from Game Nine out the last five years.

PLAY ON: vs. Kent State (11/17) - *KEY off BB losses

BUFFALO – (8/8)

Team Theme: THIS IS OUR TIME

While most teams would be fear-stricken looking to find a replacement for a graduated quarterback who immeasurably improved a marshmallow offense last season, coach Jeff Quinn instead remains the antithesis of panic. “I think this is our most talented group of QBs since I’ve been in Buffalo,” says Quinn. “We have players who we all feel can help us win football games, each with their own unique talents.”

It certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that QB Jerry Davis, who started eight games in 2010, is among that group. After averaging more than 30 PPG at home last year, the Bulls will assuredly rely on new DC Lou Tepper, who won over 100 games as a head coach at Illinois.

Stat You Will Like: The Bulls are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as conference home favorites.

PLAY AGAINST: at Northern Illinois (10/13)

KENT STATE – (*9/9)

Team Theme: BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE

The Golden Flashes finished 5-7 in Darrell Hazell’s first year as head coach, the third straight season they finished with that record. Kent hasn’t finished above .500 since 2001 but Hazell believes his team made progress in 2011. After starting the season 1-6 and 0-3 in MAC play, the Flashes won four straight and had a chance to become bowl eligible before a season-ending loss at Temple.

The first priority in 2012 is to play disciplined (76 penalties) and that should be the case as 18 starters, led by three-year starting QB Spencer Keith (6,041 passing yards/33 TD’s) return to Dix Field. ‘Flash’ Back to 2001: The Golden Ones return to the winner’s circle.

Stat You Will Like: The Flashes are 3-35 SU and 8-28-2 ATS in games against opponents off a win of more than 20 points.

PLAY ON: at Miami Ohio (11/10)

MIAMI OH – (*8/7)

Team Theme: A CHANGE OF FORTUNE

Things looked promising, on paper at least, for first-year HC and Miami grad Don Treadwell when he signed on last season. He inherited a 10-win team with 17 returning starters that witnessed the largest turnaround in FBS history from the previous year.

Treadwell quickly found out how the law of averages works after the club had four losses of seven points or less. With a wealth of experience in the trenches, a two-headed QB attack, a slew of skill-position returnees and one of the best mid-major ‘D’ lines in the country, things could once again turn around in a hurry in Oxford.

Temple is gone, so look for the ‘Hawks to feast on the East in 2012.

Stat You Will Like: Last year the RedHawks had 13 total seniors. This year’s team may have as many as 13 senior starters.

PLAY ON: at Ohio State (9/1)

OHIO UNIVERSITY – (*6/8)

Team Theme: BOBBING FOR MORE APPLES

How important was having all five offensive linemen back for OU last season? A 3-0 start for the first time since 1976, a 10-win season for the first time since 1968 and a first-ever bowl victory says it all.

Through it all, QB Tyler Tettleton developed into arguably the top performer in the league. He’s back along with all three of those aforementioned interior linemen, making the defending MAC East champs, once again, the team to beat.

Squaring off at home against five FBS foes that failed to post a winning record last year helps, too. After being the MAC apple last season, let’s just hope there is enough ATS value to nibble on this year.

Stat You Will Like: The Bobcats are 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS versus opponents with .250 or worse winning percentages under Solich.

UMASS (*6/9)

Team Theme: JUST A MINUTE

It didn’t even take UMass a minute to say yes to a step up in class when the MAC came calling. Unfortunately, new HC Charley Molnar and new DC Phil Elmassian will need a lot more than a minute to repair a rush defense that was manhandled by FCS opposition last year, including a whopping 386 yards allowed on the ground to James Madison in a season-ending 34-17 loss.

Molnar realizes his team will be outclassed early on. “We are playing a 1-A schedule with 1-AA players,” said the former Notre Dame offensive coordinator.

They will be also playing all of their home games at Gillette Stadium this year and next. No ‘minute to win it’ at Amherst this season.

Stat You Will Like: The Minutemen will not be eligible for the MAC championship and bowl participation until 2013.

West Division

BALL STATE - (*8/5)

Team Theme: LEMBO IN LIMBO

Despite a defense that went backwards 112 yards a game, Pete Lembo led the Cardinals to six wins in his first season on the sidelines in Muncie. It’s a defense that has declined each of the last three years in a row, allowing season-high yards in four of its final five games.

“We are very young and inexperienced at safety. The defensive line is another position where we graduated some seniors. So, again, we will be young and inexperienced. We need to improve across the board.”

On the flip side, Jr. QB Keith Wenning, who has started 22 games, directs a no-huddle offense that went 185 passes with no picks until the Oklahoma game last season.

Stat You Will Like: The Cardinals allowed only 11 sacks last season, which tied for 12th best in the nation.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Eastern Michigan (8/30)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN – (*9/8)

Team Theme: GREEN ENVY

For the second year in a row the Chips went green, with 24 players making their first career start, including 10 true freshmen. Add that to the 19 who made their college debut the previous season and suddenly third-year HC Dan Enos has a ‘Pleasant’ nucleus forming in 2012.

Senior QB Ryan Radcliffe, who has started 24 straight games and ranked in the Top 20 in the nation in passing yards each of the past three seasons, leads the attack and will be protected by an offensive line that returns six players with starting experience. We love 17-returning starter squads who were 1-10 ATS the previous year. Remember – what goes down can come up!

Stat You Will Like: The Chippewas will play seven home games this season for only the third time in modern history.

PLAY ON: vs. Ball State (10/20)

EASTERN MICHIGAN – (*9/5)

Team Theme: ENGLISH MAJOR

The MAC daddy’s of Michigan (beat CMU and WMU) haven’t hit the alleys since 1987 but dual-threat QB Alex Gillett (3,100 yds passing, 1,500 yds rushing) had them knocking on the door last season. And with nine returning starters back on offense, 2012 just may find them ‘scoring’ high marks with bowl officials.

Thanks to a ‘D’ that improved by an inconceivable 20 points and 105 YPG, Ron English garnered MAC Coach of the Year honors as his Eagles won six games – one more than the previous three seasons combined. To top it off, 21 players who made their collegiate debut in 2011 should make the Eagles major MAC players again.

Stat You Will Like: The Eagles have rushed for more than 2,000 yards in each of the past two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Central Michigan (11/10)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS – (4/11)

Team Theme: LEAD DOGS

After guiding NIU to its first MAC title in 28 years, it appeared coach Dave Doeren was headed to Kansas. Then Charlie Weis came along and Doeren returns to the sidelines in DeKalb for a second straight season.

That’s a good thing for the defending MAC champs who will be looking to rebuild an offense that was decimated by graduation, including conference player of the year, QB Chandler Harnisch.

More good news for NIU backers: DC Mike Dunbar inherits a stop-unit that remains intact, including a pair of former starting LB’s who missed all of last season. And with only three winning teams on the docket, the Huskies may, once again, be best in show.

Stat You Will Like: The Huskies are 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS as conference home dogs since 2001.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Ball State (10/6)

TOLEDO – (*4/5)

Team Theme: MMM, MMM, GOOD

After a three-year stay at Toledo in which the Rockets improved their win total every year – concluding in bowl appearances the last two – head coach Tim Beckman will be playing with the Big boys in the Big Ten (Illinois) this season.

Enter Matt Campbell, offensive coordinator under Beckman the past three seasons. Campbell engineered an exciting 42-41 victory over Air Force in last year’s Military Bowl and inherits a squad that appears short on returning starters.

However, Campbell insists, “One thing we have been able to do here is play a lot of kids, whether as starters or in critical situations. We have a wealth of experience.”

Alright, we’ll go to the ‘Matt’ with him.

Stat You Will Like: 32-year old Campbell is the youngest FBS coach by more than three years.

PLAY ON: at Northern Illinois (11/14)

WESTERN MICHIGAN – (*7/8)

Team Theme: CUBIT’S REVENGE

We’re guessing word out of the MAC this spring was either super secretive, or delivered by Pony Express, as the conference was slow releasing their spring prospectuses. One thing we know for sure is that 15 starters are back in Kalamazoo from last year’s bowl squad, led by QB Alex Carder (tossed for 3,873 yards in 2011, including five 400-yard efforts).

The question remains, though, will HC Bill Cubit be able to repair a defense that ranked 12th in the MAC last year and was ripped for 804 yards in a loss to Toledo? With only three teams that owned a winning record last year dotting this season’s schedule, we say ‘yes’ as Cubit improves on his healthy 34-21 conference mark.

Stat You Will Like: The Broncos are 2-12-1 ATS versus an opponent off an ATS win of 15 or more points under Cubit, including 0-7-1 ATS if the foe is .500 or greater.

PLAY ON: vs. Toledo (9/29)

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Today's MLB Picks

Houston at San Diego
The Padres look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 0-13 in Jordan Lyles' last 13 road starts. San Diego is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run.
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120).

Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JULY 17

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.149; Washington (Detwiler) 14.926
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 953-954: Arizona at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Bauer) 15.388; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.661
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Over

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.744; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.204
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+135); Under

Game 957-958: Miami at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Sanchez) 15.482; Cubs (Wood) 16.477
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-105); N/A

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.470; Milwaukee (Wolf) 16.376
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Bedard) 14.861; Colorado (Friedrich) 14.047
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Under

Game 963-964: Houston at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 14.136; San Diego (Ohlendorf) 14.801
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Under

Game 965-966: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.938; LA Dodgers (Fife) 13.885
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 967-968: LA Angels at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 16.790; Detroit (Turner) 15.270
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.351; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.139
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-220); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-220); Over

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Humber) 14.860; Boston (Lester) 16.125
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Tomlin) 15.194; Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.592
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+135); Under

Game 975-976: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Britton) 14.358; Minnesota (Deduno) 13.552
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 977-978: Seattle at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 14.506; Kansas City (Davis) 14.958
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 979-980: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Oswalt) 16.226; Oakland (Colon) 15.598
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Over

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MLB REPORT

Hot pitchers
-- Niese is 3-1, 3.49 in his last four starts.
-- Cueto is 5-2, 2.37 in his last seven starts; he's been batting problems with a blister, and was scratched from his Sunday night start.
-- Jurrjens is 3-0, 3.20 in four starts since coming off the DL. Zito is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts.
-- Wood is 4-0, 1.35 in his last four starts.

-- Bronx won 11 of last 14 Sabathia starts.
-- Turner allowed one run in five IP in his only '12 start, vs St Louis.
-- Colon is 0-0, 1.84 in two starts since coming off the DL.

Cold pitchers
-- Detwiler is 1-1, 5.25 in his last six starts.
-- Bauer has a 6.08 RA in his first three MLB starts.
-- ASanchez is 1-3, 6.92 in his last seven starts.
-- Kelly is 1-2, 3.51 in his six MLB starts. Wolf is 0-1, 8.74 in his last four.
-- Bedard is 0-4, 8.37 in his last five starts. Friedrich is 1-5, 7.27 in his last seven starts.
-- Lyles is 1-4, 5.94 in his last six starts. Ohlendorf has an 8.64 RA in his two tarts for San Diego.
-- Halladay was 1-3, 5.48 in his last four starts before going on DL. Fife is 7-5, 4.53 in 18 starts at hitter-friendly Albuquerque (AAA) this year.

-- Richards allowed 17 runs in 8.2 IP in his last two starts.
-- Cecil is 1-1, 10.57 in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 1-2, 4.68 in his last four starts. Humber is 1-2, 8.80 in his last three starts.
-- Tomlin is 2-2, 6.41 in his last five starts. Moore is 1-1, 5.68 in his last three outings.
-- Britton was 11-11, 4.61 in 28 starts for Orioles LY; he is 5-1, 3.47 in minor league ball this year (10 starts). Deduno allowed three runs in 5.1 IP in his only '12 start.
-- Beavan is 1-2, 9.00 in his last four starts. 36-year old Davis was 1-7, 6.50 in nine starts for Cubs LY; he is 5-1, 3.48 in 10 minor league games this season.
-- Oswalt has a 7.04 RA in four starts for Texas.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won 10 of its last 16 games.
-- Braves won their last seven games, scoring 43 runs. San Francisco won its last three games, allowing five runs.
-- Cubs won their last four games, allowing three runs.
-- Reds won nine of their last thirteen home games.
-- Milwaukee is 12-7 in its last 19 home games.
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 16 games.

-- Bronx won seven of its last nine games.
-- White Sox won 11 of their last 16 games.
-- Indians are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Detroit won eight of its last nine games.
-- Kansas City won four of its last six home games.
-- A's won nine of their last ten games. Texas won four of five.

Cold Teams
-- Mets lost their last four games, allowing 28 runs.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last twelve road games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last five road games.
-- Marlins lost four of their last six games.
-- Rockies lost 12 of their last 17 home games.
-- Dodgers lost 18 of their last 24 games. Philadelphia lost 11 of its last 15.
-- San Diego lost five of their last seven games. Astros snapped a 13-gamre road losing skid last night.

-- Angels lost five of their last six road games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six road games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last eleven games.
-- Tampa Bay is 6-12 in its last 18 games, 6-11 in last seventeen at home.
-- Twins lost seven of their last nine games. Baltimore lost five of six.
-- Mariners lost six of their last nine games.

Totals
-- Five of last six Detwiler starts went over the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Cincinnati home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Zito starts went over the total.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve Miami home games.
-- Over is 24-7 in last 31 games at Miller Park.
-- Nine of last ten Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven games at Petco Park stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- 11 of Angels' last 13 road games went over total.
-- Four of last six Bronx Bomber games went over total.
-- Four of last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Under is 13-5-2 in Cleveland's last twenty road games.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Baltimore games.
-- Under is 14-5 in last nineteen Seattle games.
-- Six of last seven Oakland home games stayed under.

Umpires
-- NY-Wsh-- Don't know who the umpire is.
-- Az-Cin-- Four of last five Layne games stayed under total.
-- SF-Atl-- Don't know who the umpire is.
-- Mia-Chi-- Don't know who the umpire is.
-- StL-Mil-- Road team won nine of last twelve Gorman games.
-- Pitt-Col-- Last three Culbreth games stayed under the total.
-- Hst-SD-- Five of last seven Darling games stayed under total.
-- Phil-LA-- Five of last six Bell games stayed under the total.

-- LA-Det-- Favorites won five of last six Fletcher games.
-- Tor-NY-- Five of last seven TBarrett games went over total.
-- Chi-Bos-- Nine of last twelve Everitt games stayed under.
-- Clev-TB-- Six of last nine Scott games went over the total.
-- Balt-Min-- Last four O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Sea-KC-- Five of last seven Hoye gaes went over the total.
-- Tex-A's-- Don't know who the umpire is.

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JOE WIZ

Tuesday.... In Bases play Under 8 runs bet. Texas and Oakland

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 872- 645 (57 %) over the last 4 years PLUS !

Free play Tuesday: Oak A's +110

This week: Mon Tigers -125

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

NYY -1.5 -110

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Baseball Crusher

Cincinnati Reds -165 over Arizona Dbacks

(System Record: 54-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 54-44

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Soccer Crusher

Portuguesa Desportos + Cruzeiro UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil

(System Record: 257-11, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 257-226-26

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees Monday.

Tuesday it’s the Red Sox. The deficit is 537 sirignanos.

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Profitbets

NY Yankees Runline -1.5

Reds UNDER 8.5

Braves ML

Braves 1h ML

Padres ML

Nationals OVER 8

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Anthony Louis / The Sport Dr

MLB
Toronto vs. NY Yankees, 07/17/2012 19:05
NY Yankees -1½/-108

MLB
Chi White Sox vs. Boston, 07/17/2012 19:10
Boston -166

MLB
Houston vs. San Diego, 07/17/2012 22:05
San Diego -111

MLB
Baltimore vs. Minnesota, 07/17/2012 20:10
Baltimore -102

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Easy Baseball Betting

Our systems say to go for:

Blue Jays (+208),

Cubs (+104),

Mariners (+124),

White Sox (+154),

Athletics (+106),

Nationals (-125).

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Tuesday

100* Play NY Yankees (-225) over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

CC Sabathia has won 20 of the last 26 home games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has won 7 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Tuesday. CC Sabathia has won 17 of the last 22 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 10.5 runs and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.91.

50* Play Boston (-170) over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)

50* Play Tampa Bay (-155) over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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Stephen Nover

Free Tuesday Play

Mets plus $1.15 at Nationals

Some people thought I was crazy when I said the Phillies would finish below the Nationals in the NL East. But it's going to happen. The Phillies are in decline while the Nationals are an emerging power.

The key to the Nationals is their top three starting pitchers, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman. When one of those three isn't pitching, the Nationals aren't so scary. Their everyday lineup is missing key starters Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos.

That's the situation today with Washington hosting the Mets.

The Mets have reached the must-win stage of the season in this crucial matchup - for them - against the NL East-leading Nationals. New York trails Washington by six games and needs to beat the Nationals, particularly in this game since Washington is going with its No. 5 starter, Ross Detwiler.

If the Mets fare poorly in this series, they could punt the season and start looking at younger players, including a lot of highly-regarded pitching prospects.

The Mets were idle on Monday, while the Nationals concluded a four-game series in South Florida against the Marlins. This extra rest could factor as the temperature could reach triple digits in Washington D.C.

Detwiler has allowed 19 baserunners in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. The Nationals are 2-3 in Detwiler's last five starts. This is the Mets' third look at Detwiler this season. Washington is likely to once again be missing middle infielder Ian Desmond.

Mets starter Jon Niese had a rough start against the suddenly-hot Cubs during his last start. Previous to that, however, Niese was 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his last six starts.

Niese is 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings during four career starts versus the Nationals. The Nationals are much improved this season, but they have yet to face Niese this year.

[WINNERS_ONLY]

MLB TOTALS

1/2 Dime - Los Angeles Angels ML +111

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EAGLE EYE SPORTS / WIN-MART

Your Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+145)

Your Pick: Atlanta Braves (-150)

[WINNERS_ONLY]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Miami Marlins

Texas Rangers(RL)

[WINNERS_ONLY]

SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO -118 over Pittsburgh
You might remember the Pirates being in a similar situation last season when they were the league’s biggest first half surprise heading into the break, just a game behind Cincinnati for first in the NL Central. Then the wheels came off and the Pirates ended up going 16-40 the rest of the way for the worst 2H collapse in history. Coming off the break, Pittsburgh has lost three out of four games, including the opener of this set last night. They overachieved again in the first half and that allows us to fade them in the proper situation.

It's no secret that Erik Bedard gets hurt. He's started more than 28 games only once in his career while averaging only 73 IP over each of the past four seasons. Bedard suffered through a rough June (4.70 xERA) and has given up nine runs with a 6/5 K/BB over 8.3 innings in July. We’re starting to see his repeating demise again and before a likely visit to the disabled list occurs, we should seize this opportunity.

Christian Friedrich has displayed great skills despite poor surface stats thanks to a 37% hit rate, 66% strand rate and a 14% hr/f. That’s just bad luck for a guy with an xERA (3.78), which is almost two runs lower than his actual ERA of 5.60. Friedrich has 69 K’s in 71 innings and is coming off a gem at home against the Phillies in which he went six full and allowed just five hits and one run. Finally, the Pirates have never seen Friedrich, which also works in our favor.
COLORADO -118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.69)

OAKLAND +106 over Texas
The Athletics are the hottest team in baseball right now with nine wins in 10 games and for whatever reason, the Rangers bring out the best in Bartolo Colon. He beat the Rangers at home on June 6th, going eight scoreless innings to run his career total against them to 18-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 184.2 innings. Colon is still going strong with a 48% groundball rate, outstanding control (17 BB in 104 IP) and back-to-back wins over Seattle and Boston. The A’s, who have scored 27 times over their past five games, get an opportunity to score a few more against Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has not been sharp, giving up 40 hits in his first four starts over 23 messy innings for a BAA of .385. He’s also surrendered 16 earned runs, resulting in an inflated ERA of 6.26. This park is likely to aid Oswalt but it does the same for the A’s and the superior Colon. Oakland has held its own against this club, winning half of the 10 games they’ve played against one another this season. The A’s weren’t hot then. They are now.
OAKLAND +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

Miami -110 over CHICAGO
Travis Wood has won four consecutive starts for a truly awful team and has earned praise in the process, posting a 3.05 ERA over 10 season starts. The all-star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for this truly ordinary pitcher. Wood loses some momentum with an 11-day rest coming off the break. He has an ordinary BB/K rate of 24/42 in 64 IP. He also has a commonplace groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio of 41%/22%/37%. What isn’t ordinary is his unsustainable 3.05 ERA, which is almost two runs lower than his xERA of 4.69. The chances for an ordinary pitcher winning five straight for a poor club are remote at best. Remember, Wood went 6-6 with the Reds last year with an ERA of 4.84 in 106 frames and that’s the Travis Wood we expect to see in the second half. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez is wickedly good. He has one of the lowest line-drive rates in the league at 18%. His groundball rate is a stellar 50% and he also has 95 K’s and just 31 walks in 107 innings. Sanchez has been hurt by a low 69% strand rate and should that normalize (it usually does), he has the chance to be one of the best pitchers in the game in the second half. This is a gross underlay on the superior team with the better-quality pitcher.
Miami -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

[BiggDogg5n2]

MLB TOTALS

1/2 Dime - Angels +111

[BiggDogg5n2]

Anthony Louis / The Sport Dr

MLB
Toronto vs. NY Yankees, 07/17/2012 19:05
NY Yankees -1½/-108

MLB
Chi White Sox vs. Boston, 07/17/2012 19:10
Boston -166

MLB
Houston vs. San Diego, 07/17/2012 22:05
San Diego -111

MLB
Baltimore vs. Minnesota, 07/17/2012 20:10
Baltimore -102

[BiggDogg5n2]

Profitbets

NY Yankees Runline -1.5
Reds UNDER 8.5
Braves
Braves 1h
Padres
Nationals OVER 8

[BiggDogg5n2]

Jeffrey James

#954 Cincinnati Reds with Cueto moneyline -165 (7:10 edt)

[BiggDogg5n2]

Neil Larson

Top Sport Cappers

10* San Francisco Giants +135


MLB 07/16 LA Angels at Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers -120 20.0 W

MLB 07/15 Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 125 -10.0 L
MLB 07/15 NY Mets at Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 100 50.0 W

MLB 07/14 Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Philadelphia Phillies -130 10.0 W

MLB 07/08 Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians Cleveland Indians -105 -21.0 L
MLB 07/08 San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates -125 10.0 W
MLB 07/08 Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners -105 -21.0 L

MLB 07/07 Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves -105 50.0 W

MLB 07/06 Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves -125 10.0 W
MLB 07/06 Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians Cleveland Indians -140 -14.0 L
MLB 07/06 San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants 130 13.0 W
MLB 07/06 Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers -135 10.0 W

[Edward23]

Jack Jones

BetFirms

150-124 Last L274 Free Picks!

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Pittsburgh Pirates +111

The Pittsburgh Pirates (49-40) are just one game out of first place in the NL Central with a lot to play for in the second half. The Colorado Rockies (35-54) are in last place in the NL West with virtually nothing to play for the rest of the way.

With motivation on their side, and an edge on the mound, I'll side with the Pirates to win at a great price tonight over the Rockies. Erik Bedard sports a 4.80 ERA this season, which is far from spectacular.

However, he has been better than Colorado's Christian Friedrich, who is 5-6 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the season. The left-hander is 2-3 with an 8.01 ERA and 1.91 WHIP at Coors Field this year.

The Pirates are 20-6 in their last 26 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. The Rockies are 1-6 in Friedrich's last 7 starts. Colorado is 21-44 in their last 65 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

[BiggDogg5n2]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay -155 (moneyline)

The Cleveland Indians opened their series with Tampa with a win 3-2 last night. They will certainly be hard pressed to duplicate that pitching performance tonight behind Josh Tomlin. Tomlin owns a 5.45 ERA on the season, which is even worse on the road at 6.45. The Tribe is now just 19-39 in their last 58 as a road dog of +110 to +150, and with a total set from 7 to 8.5, they are just 3-10 in their last 13. Tampa Bay is tough at home, and have won four of their last five behind Moore vs. a winning club. The Tribe has struggled to find the win column in Tampa Bay where they are just 3-10 in their last 13 here. Play on the Rays.

[BiggDogg5n2]

Jimmy Boyd 7/17

5* Atlanta Braves -143

Free MLB Pick for Tuesday - Washington Nationals -116
Washington went down Monday, but I expect it to bounce back here against a New York club it has defeated eight times in the past 10 meetings.

The Nationals are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games following a loss and 5-0 in their last five home games versus a team with a winning record. The Mets enter this contest on a four-game skid.

In addition, the Nationals are 7-0 in Detwiler's last 7 starts versus NL East foes and 12-4 in his last 16 starts versus a team with a winning record. The Mets are 0-4 in Niese's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record. We'll bet the Nats.

[BiggDogg5n2]

Ness legend play

*My 10* LEGEND Play is on Houston/SD Over at 10;05 ET.

[BiggDogg5n2]

SOLID SPORTS PICKS
32-18 RUN (64%)
07 JULY 3-1
08 JULY 4-1
13 JULY 3-1
14 JULY 0-4
15 JULY 4-1
16 JULY 1-3
17 JULY
BRAVES

MARLINS

CARDINALS

RANGERS

[BiggDogg5n2]

GOLDEN CONTENDER: MLB System Play

Tuesday card has Rare 100% Totals system with 6 Powerful angles + 91% Dog system where the dogs are winning by an average 4 runs the last 9 seasons. MLB Swept the Board for a 2nd straight night again going 3-0. Free MLB System Play below.

On Tuesday the free MLB System Play is on Boston. Game 972 at 7;10 eastern. Boston cashed as our free play last night and is too heavily favored for unit rated status. However for a free play they do fit a nice system here that plays on home favorites of -140 or higher with a total hat is 10 or more that are off a home win with a total that was 10 or higher and had 10 or more hits, if they are taking on an opponent off a road loss that scored 2 or less runs with 4 or less men left on base and had no more than 1 errors in the game. Boston averages 5.6 runs here at home and has taken 4 of the 5 meetings this season. Chicago only averages 3.7 runs vs lefthanders. Tonight they will face J. Lester who has beaten them the last two times he has faced them allowing just 2 runs in 15 innings. Lester has won 9 of his last 13 home July starts and will oppose P. Humber here tonight. HumBer has a 4.86 road era and 8.22 in his last 3 starts. In games against Boston his era is 8.82. Look for Boston to take another here tonight. On Tuesday we have another Solid card led by a Rare 100% Perfect totals system that has 6 Powerful Angles and a Dog with Bite from a 91% dog system that has dogs winning by 4 runs per game. Monday card swept the board going 3-0 a second straight night. The 5* radio play also cashed nicely with the Twins. Jump on now and cash big as we continue to Dominate Bases. For the free play take Boston. GC

[BiggDogg5n2]

Power Play Wins

Power Plays Of The Day

New York Yankees -1.5

St Louis Cardinals -110

Kansas City Royals -130

[BiggDogg5n2]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. #958. Take Chicago Cubs +105 over Miami Marlins (Tuesday @ 8:05pm est).

[BiggDogg5n2]

Ben lee's 5 game win streak is over as he lost on Monday with the Reds -$132/Diamondbacks.

For Tuesday "Mr Chalk" likes the Red Sox -$162/Pale Hose.

"Mr Chalk" is 54-41 -$1256 for the 2012 MLB Regular season.